645
FXUS63 KBIS 311746
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM CHANCES (30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
- TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 30S, WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
LINGERING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA & JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
THOUGH CHANCES FOR THIS ARE LOW (~20%).
- WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
AND A SURFACE HIGH, CENTERED IN EASTERN MONTANA, ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
CONVECTIVE-TYPE SHOWERS THAT ARE NOT SHOWING UP WELL ON RADAR
BUT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION, LIKE ONE IN THE BEACH
AREA THAT NDDOT CAMERAS REVEAL IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE
CHANGES TO POPS THROUGH THE EVENING, AS HIGH-RES CAMS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT ON SCATTERED PRECIP SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM
WEST TO EAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
NOW THAT THE SUN IS UP, NDDOT AND NDAWN CAMERAS ARE PAINTING A
BETTER PICTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, ARE JUST RAIN, BUT WE ARE SEEING A DUSTING OF SNOW IN
GRASSY SURFACES IN PARTS OF DIVIDE AND BURKE COUNTIES ON THE
CAMERAS. WE ALSO GOT A REPORT FROM THE WILLISTON AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS, AND WE GOT A REPORT FROM THE GRASSY
BUTTE AREA OF ONE HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION, WHICH IS
CORROBORATED BY THE NDDOT CAMERA IN THIS AREA. THIS ACCUMULATION
DOES SEEM VERY ISOLATED, THOUGH, WITH NEARBY CAMERAS NOT SHOWING
ANY SNOW. PRECIPITATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTENED UP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH ANOTHER BATCH MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH CENTRAL. BLENDED IN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT NO REAL CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST OR TO OUR THINKING FOR TODAY, WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, BUT SO FAR NO ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
BEEN NOTED GIVEN THE LIGHT RATE OF SNOW AND THE WARM GROUND.
WITH THAT SAID, THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE UPTICK IN COVERAGE OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, SO HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES A BIT OVER THAT AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE HIGH SETTLES
THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA
BORDER WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OVER OUR AREA,
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WITH
THAT SAID, LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED FROM ANY
SNOW THAT MAY HAVE BEEN OCCURRING.
FOR TODAY, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY, AS UPPER LOW SETTLES TOWARDS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
WITH THAT SAID, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE COOLER AIR
THAT HAS SETTLED IN, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, COOLEST IN THE WEST.
FOR THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER, BEING NOTABLY
LIGHTER FOR TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
(~20%) FOR A VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER TO PASS BY
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
BUT SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW DROPS OR FLAKES AT BEST. TRICK-OR-TREAT
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE CHILLY, MAINLY IN THE 30S
OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A NOTABLE UPTICK IN
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE PASSES BY ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WHICH WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. STRONGER
WINDS ARE NOTED ALOFT WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN, SO WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND.
FOR THE WORK WEEK, A BROAD RIDGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE PATTERN MAY BECOME A BIT
UNSETTLED BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AS A SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, WITH ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING AS WELL. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO END, BUT
EXPECTING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND
12Z, PERSISTING AT KJMS THE LONGEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JONES
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