478
FXUS63 KBIS 311953
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
253 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
- TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 30S, WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
LINGERING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA & JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
THOUGH CHANCES FOR THIS ARE LOW (~20%).
- WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, WITH OVERALL LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, A NEARLY STACKED LOW WAS ANALYZED IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS PLACED IN EASTERN
MONTANA UNDERNEATH MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT ON AND OFF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, WITH SNOW THE DOMINANT P-TYPE TO THE WEST, WHILE
THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND EAST HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY
RAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE'S ENOUGH IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW TO
KEEP A BROAD 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, SLOWLY
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES DRIFTING IN. GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST
OF THIS TO BE RAIN, ALTHOUGH IF PRECIP LINGERS ENOUGH INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO
HELP WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE TRICK-OR-
TREAT FORECAST IS STILL CHILLY, WITH TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
IN THE 30S AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. AS THE HIGH EXPANDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, CLOUDS WILL ATTEMPT TO CLEAR OUT OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
A SHALLOW, TILTED UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE 50S ON SATURDAY, WITH 40S
ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH, AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARM UP FURTHER ON SUNDAY, INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S, ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONG WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE LOWER
LEVELS, SO THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ENDS UP MIXING DOWN.
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MORE FOCUSED IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE, BUT THERE IS MODERATE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SO THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
PROJECTED TO DROP TOO MUCH ON MONDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FAVOR SOME SEMBLANCE
OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES APPEARING IN VARIOUS MEMBERS BUT NO
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION-MAKER. NBM
TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES HAVE RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD FOR THIS
LEAD TIME TO SIGNAL MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS GENERALLY
STAYING IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AS A SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, WITH ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING AS WELL. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO END, BUT
EXPECTING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND
12Z, PERSISTING AT KJMS THE LONGEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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