955
FXUS63 KBIS 312313
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
613 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
END THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- TRICK-OR-TREAT TIME TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 30S, WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST BREEZE UP TO 15
MPH.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, WITH
OVERALL LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK POPS A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
WILL TREND WINDS LIGHTER, AND RESULT IN DIMINISHING RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO SEE CLOUDS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEST THIS EVENING, WITH SOME CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK
UP CENTRAL AND EAST LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL, EDITS TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST WERE MINOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, A NEARLY STACKED LOW WAS ANALYZED IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS PLACED IN EASTERN
MONTANA UNDERNEATH MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT ON AND OFF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, WITH SNOW THE DOMINANT P-TYPE TO THE WEST, WHILE
THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND EAST HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY
RAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE'S ENOUGH IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW TO
KEEP A BROAD 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, SLOWLY
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER AWAY AND
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES DRIFTING IN. GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST
OF THIS TO BE RAIN, ALTHOUGH IF PRECIP LINGERS ENOUGH INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO
HELP WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE TRICK-OR-
TREAT FORECAST IS STILL CHILLY, WITH TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
IN THE 30S AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. AS THE HIGH EXPANDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, CLOUDS WILL ATTEMPT TO CLEAR OUT OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
A SHALLOW, TILTED UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE 50S ON SATURDAY, WITH 40S
ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH, AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARM UP FURTHER ON SUNDAY, INTO THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S, ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONG WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE LOWER
LEVELS, SO THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ENDS UP MIXING DOWN.
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MORE FOCUSED IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE, BUT THERE IS MODERATE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SO THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
PROJECTED TO DROP TOO MUCH ON MONDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FAVOR SOME SEMBLANCE
OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES APPEARING IN VARIOUS MEMBERS BUT NO
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION-MAKER. NBM
TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES HAVE RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD FOR THIS
LEAD TIME TO SIGNAL MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS GENERALLY
STAYING IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS LINGER OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING. ISOLD TO SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING (KMOT/KBIS/KJMS), WITH CHANCES TRENDING
DOWN NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH NOW THROUGH 03Z. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR WEST TO EAST
THROUGH 12Z SAT, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY ALL TERMINALS
BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...NH
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