034
FXUS63 KBIS 020144
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
844 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY (FORECAST HIGHS MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S, WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S).
- WINDY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, ALONG WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
MID LEVEL S/WV ADVANCING EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN, PRODUCING SOME DECENT RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE
MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. WHILE CLOUD BASES ARE ROUGHLY 10K
FEET AGL, OPTED TO PUT IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER MY FAR NORTH
FOR A FEW HOURS AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES EAST. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK. WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF SOME, BUT WILL REMAIN STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTH. A MIX OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT, WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING OUT OF THE REGION, AND
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH, ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID LEVEL S/WV RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AREA.
OVERALL, MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR OUTSIDE OF SKY
COVER GRIDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
CURRENTLY ALOFT, A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS WITH ZONAL FLOW UP STREAM, EXTENDING TO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. TO THE EAST, THE STACKED LOW THAT BROUGHT US THE RAIN, IS
ENTERING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, THE INCOMING
IMPACTFUL LOW PRESSURE IS SITTING IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA, AND A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL
MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS SITTING IN MONTANA,
A CLOUD SHIELD OF UPPER CLOUDS BLANKETS NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE
WARMING SUN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE MID
40S LIKE FORECAST THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF THIS. THE WARM FRONT
WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S, BUT IT HAS SINCE
STALLED IN MONTANA.
OVERNIGHT THAT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA, BRINGING THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AS WELL. BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING THAT COLD FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING ON NORTH
DAKOTA'S NORTHWESTERN DOOR. BEHIND THE FRONT, PRESSURE RISES
WILL INCREASE, BUT NOT VERY STRONG AND MAINLY JUST IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A
PUSH WARM AIR FROM CHINOOK WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN
THE ZONAL FLOW. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER THE STATE LATE
MORNING INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL, AND BEGIN COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE
BUBBLE WE ARE EXPECT NEAR BUT MAYBE NOT ADVISORY WINDS, AROUND
45 MPH. WE ARE LESS CONFIDENT IN ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE WEAKER
PRESSURE BUBBLE, THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE DAY, AND THE EFI
FORECAST EMSAMBLE NOT CONFIDENT EITHER. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE ZONAL FLOW WITH A SLIGHT
DISTURBANCE LATE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN BACK TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEASONABLE IN THE ZONAL FLOW
IN THE 50S, EXTENDING OUR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY, TURNING TO THE WEST SUNDAY. WINDS
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY GUST NEAR 35KTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 00Z PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 15/16Z SUN MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS, AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF A
BIT FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT, THEN WILL TRANSITION TO
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY GUST NEAR 35KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...NH
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