962
FXUS63 KBIS 021811
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1211 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY,
RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
- DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (ABOUT 20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE. STRONG WINDS HAVE
BEEN FOUND ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. WITH THE SLIGHT DELAY IN
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BETTER MIXING IS BEING FOUND WITH THIS FRONT.
THUS EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONG WINDS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO BEING FOUND, THUS INCREASED THOSE IN
THE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE SLOWLY STARTING
TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30 MPH ARE STARTING TO BE REPORTED IN THE NORTH, WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. THUS WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS AS THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RADAR RETURNS IN
MONTANA AND IN SOUTHERN CANADA COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST TODAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY. FOR NOW ADDED IN SOME SPRINKLES FOR THESE
MENTIONED AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO SHIFT OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
TO REFLECT THIS INCREASE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER, WITH TROUGH/WARM FRONT SLIDING
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. OVER OUR AREA, WINDS HAVE BEEN BECOMING GUSTY
WITH THE PASSING LOW.
FOR TODAY, SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SWIFT PROGRESSION TO
THE EAST PASSING OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ENTERING WESTERN ONTARIO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROCEED EASTERLY, WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO MID-DAY. VERY MILD AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR RIGHT BEFORE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR BUT IT IS NOT VERY STRONG. THE MAIN CONCERN, THOUGH,
WILL BE WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MODEST, IT IS
ENOUGH WHERE STRONGER WINDS NOTED ALOFT (~40-45 KTS) SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE, HAVE PUT OUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FORECAST THEN BECOMES RATHER QUIET THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WE END UP
IN A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WHICH SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY
WEATHER OVER THE REGION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE AVERAGE. LATER IN THE WEEK PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT
MORE ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WAVES PASSING THROUGH, BRINGING
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES (ABOUT 20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT TODAY. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO BE FOUND AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH SOME
LOWER CLOUDS MAY ENTER IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY
BRINING SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT, WITH FEW TO SCT VFR CLOUDS
LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MONDAY THEN SEES VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A STEADY WEST NORTHWEST WIND.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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