993
FXUS63 KBIS 030553
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1153 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
- DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (ABOUT 20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. GOING
FORECAST IS HANDLING THIS WELL, SO CHANGES ARE MINIMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. MINIMAL CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. MAINLY UPDATED HOURLY WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND MODIFIED BASED ON TRENDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED, WITH PEAK
WIND GUSTS DECREASING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE ARE A HANDFUL OF
GUSTS STILL NEAR 45 MPH AT 1700-1800 CST, THOUGH THE MAJORITY
OF OBSERVATIONS HAVE TRENDED MUCH LOWER AS OUR NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL INVERSION FORMS, AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AT ALL
LOCATIONS.
ONLY OTHER MODIFICATION WAS TO SKY COVER, WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT. THUS WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY REMAIN AS IS. GUSTY WINDS
MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, WITH THE EARLIER SUNSET,
PEAK MIXING SHOULD BE BEFORE THE WIND ADVISORY IS SLATED TO
EXPECTED. THUS WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF ANY TIME
EXTENSION IS NEEDED FOR THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE,
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE STILL
FORECAST WITH THIS CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DIMINISHED
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S.
FLAT RIDGING THEN LOOKS TO KEEP MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WINDS MAY
REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY ON MONDAY, THEN BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH
MID WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FROM THE
NBM. WEAK WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD IN POPS
AT THIS TIME.
WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING SOME WARMING
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK. LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND CLUSTERS HINT A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN MAY RETURN TO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SPREADS STILL SHOWING NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN THOUGH. WITH THIS TROUGH PATTERN
COULD RETURN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW DEPENDING
ON WAVE TIMING. SOME BREEZY WINDS MAY ALSO RETURN WITH THIS
PATTERN, WITH THE ECMWF EFI VALUES HINTING AND WINDY DAYS ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...JJS
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