161
FXUS63 KBIS 031744
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1144 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
WITH A COOL-DOWN TO END THE WEEK.
- DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (~20-50 PERCENT) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
ADDED SOME LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN (EVEN LOWER CHANCES FOR SNOW)
TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF HWY 2 AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IS LOOKING TO BE LESS OF A PROBLEM THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH
GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH. RH UNDER 30 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(5PM)
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 857 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING WITH MANY SEEING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 50S FOR ALL TODAY. NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH.
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY,
WITH HIGH STRETCHING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVER OUR AREA, QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND.
FOR TODAY, RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THOUGH CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE MAINLY LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE PUSH INTO OUR
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
CHANGES START TO COME LATER IN THE WEEK. ON THURSDAY A MODEST
CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ALONG WITH LOW TO MODERATE (~20-50
PERCENT) CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES COMING LATE FRIDAY. WINDS MAY ALSO BE
A BIT OF A CONCERN AS ECMWF EFI CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED
(BUT NOT VERY HIGH) VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 10K FT THROUGH MAYBE THE
LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WHERE NORTHERN SITES COULD COME DOWN
TO 7-8K FEET BUT OVERALL MINIMAL CONCERNS. WINDS GUSTY NEAR
JAMESTOWN THROUGH 5PM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH ALL SITES SEEING WINDS SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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