486
FXUS63 KBIS 032356
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
556 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A
COOL DOWN TO END THE WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (~30-60 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. MAIN EDITS WERE TO
SKY COVER, TO BETTER REPRESENT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
TRENDS. OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKED GOOD.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS EVENING, WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING INTO OUR
AREA. A MID LEVEL S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP
EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY,
MAINTAINING CLOUDY CONDITIONS, LOWERING CEILINGS, AND BRINGING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
..SYNOPSIS
WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS TRANSIENT THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES BASED CLUSTERS ARE DISPLAYING SOME GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT TERM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES
GIVES WAY TO THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN THEREAFTER WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION AMID WHAT COULD BE DESCRIBED AS
ZONAL FLOW. THE MOST APPARENT WAVES LOOK TO COME THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES CERTAINLY DIVERGE
ON THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING AS WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT
BUT THE SIGNAL REMAINS.
WHILE THE DOMINATING RIDGE WILL BRING A MODIFIED DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS
TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE TUESDAY KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S SOUTH OF I-94 FURTHER NORTH THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT EFFICIENT DIURNAL HEATING WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AT BEST. THIS IS STILL A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A COOL DOWN COMING THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT THE 30S FOR ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.
- TUESDAY
A WEAK LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SOME WARM ADVECTION IN 850MB LAYER PROMPTING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN THOUGH COMPETING DRY AIR GETTING PUMPED IN FROM THE SOUTH
AT THE SURFACE WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH A TRACE TO A
COUPLE HUNDRETHS FALLING AT MOST.
- THURSDAY
THE NEXT WEEK SHORTWAVE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA WILL COME THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO JAMESTOWN AND FARGO. AGAIN FORCING LOOKS
RATHER WEAK WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWAT'S STRUGGLE TO
REACH MUCH ABOVE A HALF INCH FOR MORE THAN A 6 HOUR PERIOD WHICH IS
UNDER THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR ALL EVENTS ACROSS THIS
PERIOD (ITS NOT VERY MOIST AND WE SHOULDN'T TYPICALLY EXPECT
MUCH QPF FROM A SETUP LIKE THIS).
- FRIDAY/SATURDAY
THE ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES WITH ENSEMBLES BEGINNING HAVE
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE THOUGH ONLY AS MUCH AS WESTERN VS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FOR A TRACK COMPARED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WAVE TO TRACK
THROUGH PARTS OF MT OR MN ON YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. THIS WAVE WILL
ALSO HAVE TO BENEFIT (OR NEGATIVE IF YOU ARE A WINTER DENIER)
OF COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM MEANING
SNOW IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. ALBEIT WITH WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW RATES SNOW WOULD LIKELY ACCUMULATE
OUTSIDE OF ELEVATED OR GRASSY SURFACES BUT CURRENTLY LOOKING AT
A 60+ PERCENT CHANCE FOR MORE THAN A TENTH OR TWO FOR ANY GIVEN
TRACK. IS A COUPLE TENTHS OF SNOW REALLY IMPACTFUL FOR MOST? NO.
BUT IT WOULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON
FOR MOST (YES FAR NW NORTH DAKOTA ALREADY SAW THEIRS A COUPLE
WEEKS AGO) AND THEREFORE IT'S MORE A FUN THING TO MENTION FOR
THIS AFD UPDATE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT, WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT,
THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BEHIND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN, AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...NH
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