366
FXUS63 KBIS 140946
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
346 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST.
- LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW THIS WEEKEND. THEN WIDESPREAD
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
A THERMAL RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING, WHILE CANADIAN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
WILL BREAK IT DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE. THE PROGRESSIVELY
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHWESTERN ND
SOMETIME MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND FULLY PASS THROUGH THE STATE
AROUND MIDNIGHT GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE HOURS. LIGHT RAIN IS
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS SUCH, WETTING RAINS
(A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE) ARE UNLIKELY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.
PRIOR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE, A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE BREEZY WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TODAY. ALSO, WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE
DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE MISSOURI COTEAU
WHERE THE ORIENTATION OF THE COTEAU IS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS TAKE
ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. SAID WESTERLY WINDS, ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED
THERMAL RIDGING, AND POTENTIAL COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST OVERALL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS PAST WEEK. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S, THOUGH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S, WHILE THE SOUTHWEST MAY
ENCROACH INTO THE LOW 70S. THESE FORECAST HIGHS ARE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR CLIMATE SITES WITHIN THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA, COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES THAT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, COULD FALL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN SATURDAY WOULD LIKELY BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED IN NATURE. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MIGRATE ONTO THE WEST CONUS AND SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
FOR NEXT WEEK, THINGS REMAIN A BIT UP IN THE AIR. WHILE THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS, THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN REGARD TO POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS MOSTLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THE NBM DETERMINISTIC IS USUALLY WARMER THAN THE
50TH PERCENTILE, AND OFTEN CLOSER TO THE 75TH. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO SOME RECENCY BIAS, WHICH MAY NOT PLAY OUT WITH THE
CHANGE IN PATTERN. OR IN OTHER WORDS, THERE IS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY THAT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WIND UP A BIT COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST RATHER THAN WARMER.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECASTS
FOR NEXT WEEK IN THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, REMAINS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING MONDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMING PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
DESPITE THE OVERALL TREND BEING SIMILAR, THE NBM HAS ALSO SHOWN
A NOTICEABLE SHIFT TOWARDS A BIT DRIER SOLUTION TO START THE
WORKWEEK IN THAT COVERAGE IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS COMPARED TO
PRIOR RUNS, AND POPS MAINLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT RATHER
THAN 20 TO 40 PERCENT. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THEN
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
LOWER END PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL WEATHER AT ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
LLWS IS PRESENT IN NORTHWESTERN AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL ND,
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY
MORNING. LLWS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. OTHERWISE, AN INCOMING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY BRING
RELATIVELY BRIEF LIGHT RAIN TO MOST OF THE STATE. INITIALLY, LOW
RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. USED PROB30
GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TIMEFRAMES AT EACH TERMINAL WHERE THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN
DURING ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, VFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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