912
FXUS63 KBIS 141507
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
907 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST.
- LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW THIS WEEKEND. THEN WIDESPREAD
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 907 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
WEAK REFLECTIVITIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN MONTANA AT THE TIME OF THIS MID
MORNING UPDATE. WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND OR ABOVE 8KFT, AND A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER WITH DEWPT DEPRESSIONS
AROUND 20 TO 30 DEGREES, LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, WITH SURFACE
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND ROUGHLY SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWEST. NO MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED WITH THIS UPDATE, AS
IT REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CONTAIN TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S, WITH ONE OBSERVATION IN LITTLE MISSOURI STATE PARK
REGISTERING 61 DEGREES. HOWEVER, FOR LOCATIONS IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH CLEAR SKIES, AND EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED BELOW
WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED
IN A CASE LIKE THIS, THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING RELEASED THIS
MORNING SHOWS A VERY STRONG NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION. AS WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE TODAY, THIS WARMER AIR
WILL MIX DOWN RESULTING IN THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
A THERMAL RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING, WHILE CANADIAN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
WILL BREAK IT DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE. THE PROGRESSIVELY
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHWESTERN ND
SOMETIME MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND FULLY PASS THROUGH THE STATE
AROUND MIDNIGHT GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE HOURS. LIGHT RAIN IS
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS SUCH, WETTING RAINS
(A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE) ARE UNLIKELY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.
PRIOR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE, A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE BREEZY WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TODAY. ALSO, WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE
DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE MISSOURI COTEAU
WHERE THE ORIENTATION OF THE COTEAU IS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS TAKE
ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. SAID WESTERLY WINDS, ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED
THERMAL RIDGING, AND POTENTIAL COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST OVERALL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS PAST WEEK. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S, THOUGH AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S, WHILE THE SOUTHWEST MAY
ENCROACH INTO THE LOW 70S. THESE FORECAST HIGHS ARE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR CLIMATE SITES WITHIN THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA, COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES THAT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, COULD FALL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN SATURDAY WOULD LIKELY BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED IN NATURE. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MIGRATE ONTO THE WEST CONUS AND SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT WEEK.
FOR NEXT WEEK, THINGS REMAIN A BIT UP IN THE AIR. WHILE THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS, THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN REGARD TO POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS MOSTLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THE NBM DETERMINISTIC IS USUALLY WARMER THAN THE
50TH PERCENTILE, AND OFTEN CLOSER TO THE 75TH. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO SOME RECENCY BIAS, WHICH MAY NOT PLAY OUT WITH THE
CHANGE IN PATTERN. OR IN OTHER WORDS, THERE IS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY THAT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WIND UP A BIT COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST RATHER THAN WARMER.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECASTS
FOR NEXT WEEK IN THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, REMAINS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING MONDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMING PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
DESPITE THE OVERALL TREND BEING SIMILAR, THE NBM HAS ALSO SHOWN
A NOTICEABLE SHIFT TOWARDS A BIT DRIER SOLUTION TO START THE
WORKWEEK IN THAT COVERAGE IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS COMPARED TO
PRIOR RUNS, AND POPS MAINLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT RATHER
THAN 20 TO 40 PERCENT. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THEN
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
LOWER END PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL WEATHER AT ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 907 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
LLWS IS PRESENT IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, AN INCOMING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY BRING RELATIVELY BRIEF
LIGHT RAIN TO MOST OF THE STATE. INITIALLY, LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. USED PROB30 GROUPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE TIMEFRAMES AT EACH TERMINAL WHERE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN DURING ANY
LIGHT RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM/TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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