685
FXUS63 KBIS 170002
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
602 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG LINGERING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD BE OCCASIONALLY DENSE.
- LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT)OVER
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING, AND TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
FOG LOOKS TO BE FINALLY ERODING OVER FAR NORTHWEST ND. STILL
SOME PATCHY FOG SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN MCKENZIE COUNTY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT ATTIM LOOKS LIKE WE CAN ALLOW SPS TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM. ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF LOW VFR CLOUDS
NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND, MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF FOG TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER BASED ON SATELLITE WITH A BLEND OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LEE SIDE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH HIGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES LOW OVER NEVADA, WHILE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER
OUR AREA, STORY OF THE DAY HAS BEEN PERSISTANT FOG LINGERING
OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT HAS OCCURRED, THOUGH A FEW DENSE
SPOTS LINGER OVER PARTS OF DIVIDE, WILLIAMS AND MCKENZIE
COUNTIES.
FOR TONIGHT, COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA LIFTS OVER THE
ROCKIES ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER, WHILE AFOREMENTIONED
LEE TROUGH PUSHES A BIT EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP A MODEST
EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND GOING OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT BY ANY MEANS, THIS MAY KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
FROM RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST. WITH THAT SAID, SOME
PATCHY FOG REMAINS A CONCERN SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THAT
THROUGH THE EVENING AND RE-EVALUATE. OTHERWISE, WEATHER REMAINS
QUIET.
ON MONDAY, UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST EVENTUALLY SLIDING OVER
NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP MOST
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR BORDER, BUT DO HAVE SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER IN CASE SOME
MAKES ITS WAY A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IF PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS, THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES LATER IN THE
EVENING.
ON TUESDAY RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WHILE ANOTHER COMPACT LOW SLIDES DOWN ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH THE DAY
THOUGH A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDING THROUGH BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW THEN ENDS UP SPLITTING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW, WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHING
INTO OUR AREA BRINGING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
NBM THEN SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A STRAY IMPULSE
PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
FOG IN NORTHWEST HAS DISSIPATED AT KXWA, BUT LIFR CEILINGS
REMAIN, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AT KXWA TO BEGIN THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AT REMAINING TAF SITES.
EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG IN WESTERN ND,
INCLUDING KDIK AND KXWA THIS EVENING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT, WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND THEN
SOME LOW VFR CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
EXPECT AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT, THEN 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY, WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH
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