617
FXUS63 KBIS 180916
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
316 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THIS
WORKWEEK, THOUGH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE FORECAST
PERIODICALLY IN THE NORTHEAST AND IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION ARE
FAVORED FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT RETURNS APPROACHING THE
FAR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 30S FOR
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THEREFORE, THE PROBABILITY FOR
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING REMAINS LOW IN THE CENTRAL. THE
FAR NORTHWEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS COLDER. BUT RETURNS UP
THERE APPEAR PRETTY LIGHT WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANYTHING
REACHING THE SURFACE. AS SUCH, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. EITHER WAY,
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE STATE SHOULD END TOWARDS
SUNRISE, OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY
BRINGS LIGHT RAIN PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS WHERE MENTIONABLE POPS ARE PRESENT
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO UNLESS SKIES CLEAR PRIOR TO
RAIN FALLING (NOT THE FAVORED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME), FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT SEEMS PRETTY LOW AS WELL.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, MOSTLY DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST. WITHOUT A PARTICULARLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE, THIS WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, MOST DAYS, AS HIGHS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S. COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE FORECAST IN THE
NORTHEAST AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES. HOWEVER, AVERAGE HIGHS
IN THOSE AREAS ARE ALREADY LESS THAN 35 DEGREES, WHILE AREAS
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH ARE CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES. LOWS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AND MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S, THOUGH ARE PROGGED TO BECOME A BIT COOLER AT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
FOR NEXT WEEK, TRENDS FAVOR MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH NBM ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SPREADS REMAIN HIGH. IN
ADDITION, THE CPC ALSO CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION. BEAR IN MIND, ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR
THIS TIME OF OF YEAR IS ONLY AROUND 15 HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT, OR APPROXIMATELY ANY SYSTEM THAT DROPS 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT. NORTH DAKOTA WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ND BORDER. THERE IS AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL ND THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AND MAY CHANGE OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH
MOSTLY A RAIN SNOW MIX. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (20%)
THAT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KXWA, KMOT AND KJMS. KDIK AND KBIS ARE
SHOWING LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (20-40 PERCENT) FOR MVFR
CEILINGS TUESDAY MORNING. KDIK COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
5-15KTS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TWH
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