033
FXUS63 KBIS 201846
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED TO END THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40%) CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW RETURNING
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES
REMAIN, THUS WESTERLY WINDS STILL UP TO 15 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S, AND WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TODAY
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHWEST. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST, THOUGH DID ADD FOG FOR THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT, AND
ADDED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS FOR NEXT MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY IN THE HWO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED
COOL/SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY,
YET WITH FINALLY MUCH MORE SUNSHINE VS CLOUD COVER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES ARE BEING
FOUND IN THE WEST AND SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. FOG HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED YET IN AREAS
THAT ARE CLEARED, ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
OVERALL LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
COLD FRONT TO PUSH EASTWARD TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BEHIND THIS FRONT. LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH TODAY, RETURNING
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. CLEARING
SKIES THIS MORNING COULD BRING SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG, MAINLY IN
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY BEHIND
THIS FRONT, ALTHOUGH STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. STEADY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE STATE TONIGHT, BRINGING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
FOG AS A RESULT, ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY LIMIT THIS
COVERAGE. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THEN SETS UP FOR FRIDAY, WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE RESULTANT WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WARM
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
INCREASED CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE FOUND WITH THIS WAVE, ALTHOUGH DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH FORECAST
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. STEADY WESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FLAT RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS EACH DAY ARE FORECAST IN THE 40S
AND 50S, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. A STEADY WESTERLY WIND MAY BE
FOUND ON SATURDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
SPLIT WAVE PATTERN STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK, WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW. CLUSTERS STILL VARY ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS PATTERN. CLUSTERS THAT HAVE MORE GFS
AND GEFS IN THEM ARE SHOWING HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AND SNOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS IT HAS THE TROUGH BETTER
DEFINED. HOWEVER, THESE MAKE UP ABOUT 30% OF SOLUTIONS. THE
REMAINING 70% OF CLUSTER SOLUTIONS SHOW MORE OF A SPLIT WAVE
FEATURE. THIS STILL HAS AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW,
ALTHOUGH IS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THE GFS FAVORED
CLUSTERS. NBM CURRENTLY HAS ABOUT 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF RAIN
TURNING TO SNOW EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GOING FORWARD. THERE STILL REMAINS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK FROM EITHER
CLUSTER SOLUTION. HOW COLD STILL DEPENDS ON WHICH TROUGH PATTERN
PLAYS OUT. NBM CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FORECAST BY MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THIS TROUGH PATTERN COULD ALSO BRING SOME BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY ECMWF EFI VALUES ARE
ELEVATED AS A RESULT, ESPECIALLY NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED
BY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT. SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH YET TO MENTION ANY FOG AT KDIK OR KBIS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...NH
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