409
FXUS63 KBIS 210609
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1209 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS COMING
WEEKEND AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FAVORED FROM NEXT WEEK
TUESDAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVEMBER.
- A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS (ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT)
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (30 TO 50%) FOR SNOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK,
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
LITTLE UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SOME PATCHY FOG IS STARTING
TO SHOW UP ON THE SATELLITE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND IN THE
NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH REPORTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED SO FAR. ADDED IN
SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWEST, OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA,
WITH A LITTLE IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHICH IS TRYING TO SPREAD
NORTH. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP FOG GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 657 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE QUESTIONABLE CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF IT
LATE TONIGHT, BUT GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY WILL KEEP PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
CURRENTLY, STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH CUTTING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. S/WV MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BACK NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND THE FOOTHILLS OF
MONTANA, WITH ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
S/WV RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF THE RIDGE STILL
CONTRIBUTING TO A STEADY WESTERLY BREEZY UP TO 15 MPH ACROSS
CENTRAL ND, WITH LIGHTER WINDS CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS. TEMPERATURE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT, WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME
FOG/POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO DAYTIME FRI MORNING, SO KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST.
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY ZONAL
FLOW ON SUNDAY, WILL RESULT IN DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS PEAKING SUNDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (WHEN
ZONAL FLOW/BROAD RIDGING WILL BE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH INCREASES). WINDS MAY BE BREEZY AT
TIMES DURING ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND, BUT NOTHING
ATYPICAL FOR OUR REGION.
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT, THEN QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW/TROUGH ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN INTO THE DAY MONDAY, WITH
THE GEFS ENSEMBLE FASTER AND THE EC ENSEMBLE SLOWER (AS ARE
THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS). NBM HAS MONDAY DAYTIME MAINLY QUIET
WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUING, THOUGH WITH WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING DURING THE DAY. REGARDLESS, THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME LATER IN THE DAY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FROPA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CHANGE TO THE REGION (COLDER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS, AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL).
WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS WITH THE FROPA, WITH THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF
THESE WINDS DEPENDING ON WHETHER THIS STORM SYSTEM STAYS AN
OPEN WAVE (EC ENS) AND IS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH OUR AREA, OR
CLOSES OFF (GFS ENS) AND STALLS A BIT. ANOTHER THING WE WILL BE
MONITORING IS SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. BOTH THE EC AND GEFS RUNS GIVE
A 10-20% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 3 INCHES OF SNOW, AND UP TO A
50-60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AN INCH, WITH THE AREAS FOR THESE
PROBS STILL UP IN THE AIR DEPENDING ON THE MODEL, CURRENTLY
MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE NOTICEABLE, WITH TEMPERATURES
STEADY OR DROPPING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS THEN IN
THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS THROUGH MID WEEK AND
THANKSGIVING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
AREAS OF FOG COULD BRING LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY TO PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE MENTIONED VCFG IN THE KDIK TAF, BUT
CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW WHETHER THE AIRFIELD ITSELF WILL
BE AFFECTED, AND HOW MUCH VISIBILITY MAY DROP. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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