912
FXUS63 KBIS 211738
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1138 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS COMING
WEEKEND AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FAVORED FROM NEXT WEEK
TUESDAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVEMBER.
- A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST ON TUESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30 TO 50%) FOR SNOW EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
THE FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL IS BREAKING UP AND
LIFTING NOW. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NORTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 910 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
THE ADVECTION FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, AND NOW HAS
SPREAD INTO MORTON, GRANT, AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE SPS FOR FOG
WITH A QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY OR LESS HAS BEEN REISSUED TO
INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
FOG STARTING TO SHOW UP ON WEBCAMS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
REPORTS ARE STILL FAIRLY ISOLATED, THUS ISSUED AN SPS FOR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH
REPORTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED SO FAR. SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD BRING SOME INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AT TIMES TODAY, ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANGES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S. THE MENTIONED WAVE MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT,
BRINGING A DRY WESTERLY FLOW AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SURFACE RIDGE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY, WITH
THIS PATTERN PUSHING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. OVERALL LOOK FOR MILD
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE FOUND WITH THIS PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH A
WEAK WAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME INCREASED
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH AT TIMES.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MEDIUM (30 TO 50%) CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. CLUSTERS STARTING TO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT IN THESE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THAT MAY START AS RAIN ON MONDAY, THEN
TRANSITION TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT, REMAINING MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY.
THERE STILL REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH SNOW. BOTH SOLUTIONS
SHOW THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICK. HOWEVER, ABOUT HALF
OF CLUSTERS FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK PUTTING HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN CANADA, WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF CLUSTERS
SPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN,
CENTRAL, AND EASTERN PORTIONS. CURRENTLY NBM HAS THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH
AROUND 10 TO 40% CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR
PERIOD NEXT WEEK ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. ECMWF EFI VALUES FOR SNOW
ARE CURRENTLY LOW, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL SHIFT OF TAILS
INDICATING SOME HIGHER OUTLIERS IN ECMWF ENSEMBLES. SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOTEWORTHY THE
CHANCES FOR SNOW EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY
TODAY. THIS SAME PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE ECMWF EFI VALUES ELEVATED FOR TUESDAY AND AT
LEAST BREEZY WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ALSO
REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN BEHIND
THIS TROUGH BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. NBM SPREADS ARE STILL
MODEST, ALTHOUGH THE WARMER END OF THESE SPREADS ARE AROUND
NORMAL AND MUCH OF THE SPREADS BELOW NORMAL. CURRENT NBM
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY AND COOL
TO THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY. WHILE LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE
FORECAST IN THE TEENS AND 20S COOLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME IFR VIS ARE STILL PRESENT IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WITH FOG, THIS SHOULD IMPROVED
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO VFR. WINDS WILL LIGHT TODAY,
INCREASING TO 20KTS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...SMITH
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