598
FXUS63 KBIS 212109 RRA
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NOVEMBER.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON TUESDAY.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHILE AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER LOW
SYSTEM SITS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS SLIGHT RIDGING
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO WILL THE MILD ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. IT WON'T BE UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THE WEATHER
STARTS TO SHIFT.
STARTING SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR VANCOUVER
CANADA. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE STATE WILL BE IN DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
STATE, EXTENDING OFF A LOW IN ALBERTA. HOWEVER, THERE IS
LOCATION UNCERTAINTY AS THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT PATHS FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW. SOME HAVE IT COMING
RIGHT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, OTHERS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
THE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA. REGARDLESS, THE LAST 48 HOURS OF
THE NBM THE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED TO A
HIGHER END MEDIUM CHANCE (45-50%). THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SEEMINGLY
LIKELY. THE EFI FORECAST HAS INCREASING VALUES OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE EFI IS NOW SHOWING 0.66 VALUES WHICH IS GETTING EVER
SO CLOSER TO OUR 0.80 FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SYSTEM THE NBM PROBABILITIES ARE:
1 INCH: ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE THERE IS A 50 TO 70
PERCENT CHANCE, SOUTH OF THAT IS 20 PERCENT.
2 INCHES: ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 200 THERE IS A 40 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE. SOUTH OF THAT IS AROUND A 20 TO 40 PERCENT.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF ALL THIS TOO WITH ALL THE
DIFFERENT MODEL OUTCOMES. THE GEFS MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM MORE
SOUTH WITH HIGHER QPF, COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EURO EMSAMBLES.
THOSE HAVE THE LOW STAYING FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. THE GEFS
SEEM LIKE THE OUTLIER CURRENTLY AS EVEN THE NBM PROBABILITIES
ARE FURTHER NORTH IN NORTHERN ND AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL WE GET MUCH CLOSER AND THE MODELS LINE UP BETTER TO
UNDERSTAND WHAT MIGHT ACTUALLY HAPPEN. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, WE
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S. LOWS WILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
NEGATIVE LOWS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL LIGHT TODAY, EXCEPT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GUSTING TO 20KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE TO 20KTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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