797
FXUS63 KBIS 230246
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
846 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
- MUCH COLDER BEGINNING TUESDAY, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
- HIGH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING, WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES
OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
- ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO FAR OUT FOR DETAILS, THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AFTER THANKSGIVING,
WHICH COULD IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 844 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
LOW-LYING AREAS ARE SHOWING STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN
ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HIGH CLOUDS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND TRENDS WERE BLENDED IN FOR THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 60
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. IT MAY BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. A GOOD DAY TO DO ANY LAST MINUTE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES OR WINTERIZING, BEFORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FROM BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH HAS BEEN IN CONTROL FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, TO A COLDER
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. OVERALL, MONDAY SHOULD SHAPE UP TO BE A
PRETTY NICE DAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
HIGHS SHOULD STILL REMAIN AROUND 50 ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER, WITH HIGHS NEAR 40 ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOOKS TO BRING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER WESTERN ND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. RAIN INITIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON MIXES WITH, AND CHANGES
TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS
INITIALLY (OUT OF THE EAST) ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG.
BUT ONCE THE WAVE PASSES, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE.
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN ND. THE SNOW
AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE IS BECOMING
SITUATED OVER WESTERN ND WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. DEPENDING ON SNOW AMOUNTS, SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW MAY LINGER OVER CENTRAL ND TUESDAY EVENING.
LOOKING AT THE WPC SUPER-ENSEMBLE VIEWER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND RESULTING PATH OF
HEAVIER SNOW, RANGING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER IF YOU AVERAGE THEM ALL OUT YOU'D PROBABLY GET
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE NBM. THE NBM SHOWED MEDIUM
PROBABILITIES (40 TO 70%) FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. THE EXCEPTION, AT THIS TIME,
BEING THE FAR SOUTHWEST (WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 2
INCHES). DESI IS SHOWING ABOUT A 60 TO 40 SPLIT WITH THE SLIGHT
FAVORING (60%) TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM. THE GEFS IS THE
MAJOR PLAYER IN THE STRONGER SOLUTION, WITH NO MEMBERSHIP IN THE
WEAKER SOLUTION. HOWEVER, THE TREND OF THE GEFS TODAY IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WHEN YOU COMPARE THE MEAN 24
HOUR SNOWFALL FOR THIS SYSTEM, THERE ISN'T A WHOLE LOT OF
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGHER (3-4 INCH) GEFS SOLUTION AND THE
LOWER (1-1.5 INCH) NON-GEFS SOLUTION.
WE UTILIZED THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
OUR MAIN MESSAGING TODAY. HOPEFULLY GETTING THE WORD OUT THAT
THERE'S A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SHOVELABLE SNOW. WHEN YOU
ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WINDS WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW, ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES THAT DO NOT CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER THE SNOW, THE PROBABILITY FOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS INCREASES. ALTHOUGH IT'S TOO EARLY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SUCH, WE HAVE PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE MAINLY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S, THEN A
LITTLE COOLER THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S. LOWS THANKSGIVING MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO INTO THE LOWER TEENS.
ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION AND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. STAY TUNED AS THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN COULD IMPACT TRAVEL IN THE REGION FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS
OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 844 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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