701
FXUS63 KBIS 242042
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
242 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO
JAMESTOWN, WHERE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH, ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL
CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
- THERE REMAINS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A VERY COLD AND POSSIBLY SNOWY
PATTERN AFTER THANKSGIVING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
TRAVEL CONCERNS FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
CURRENTLY THE STATE IS UNDER ZONAL FLOW, AND SWITCHING TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STARTING TO DIG THROUGH
MONTANA, THIS WILL BE OUR SNOW PRODUCER LATER. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SITS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGHER
PRESSURE IS BEING FORCED OUT OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE,
WITH PRESSURE FALLING ELSEWHERE. THERE IS CURRENTLY A SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, MOVING EAST. WITH IT IS
A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/ICE PELLET MIX.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE
STATE, EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST, THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE 12Z AND 15Z MODELS, THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
SOUTHERN SHIFT IN THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERN TRACK. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS, LED TO THE DECISION TO GO CWA
WIDE ADVISORY. IN THIS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TRACK, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW, OTHERWISE ITS A WIDE PATH
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. THE NBM MIGHT HAVE TOO HIGH OF SNOW TOTALS AND
PROBABILITIES, BUT THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES IS 50 TO 80
PERCENT IN THAT TRACK. FOR GREATER THAN 6 IT DROPS TO AROUND 50
PERCENT, BUT AGAIN THE NBM MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, BUT SO IS
EVERY OTHER MODEL. WE ARE LEANING MORE ON THE LOWER END OF THOSE
PROBABILITIES BECAUSE THE SYSTEM SEEMS VERY PROGRESSIVE OVER
THE DAKOTAS. ONCE IT GETS TO MINNESOTA, THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
WRAP UP AND DEEPEN WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN AND PRODUCE MORE SNOW.
WHEN AND IF WE SEE THE SNOW BAND SETUP, AND WE ARE CONFIDENT IN
A SWATH OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES, WHEN WE WILL UPGRADE THOSE
COUNTIES TO A WARNING.
THIS IS MOSTLY A SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SYSTEM WITH AN OPEN SHORTWAVE
DEEPENING AND WRAPPING UP TO THE EAST OF THE DAKOTAS. ACROSS ALL
MODELS THE Q VECTORS ARE VERY STRONGLY NEGATIVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE
MODELS DIFFER WHERE THE VECTORS TURN POSITIVE AGAIN, WHERE THIS
HAPPENS, THE SNOW TOTALS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY (IN THE
POSITIVE VALUES). SOME MODELS HAVE THAT LINE NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER, OTHERS HAVE FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHWEST. LAPSE RATES WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY HEALTHY WITH VALUES AROUND 8 DEGREES C PER
KM. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE COUPLED WITH THE 700MB LOW, BOTH
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM TOO.
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LOCATION OF IT, BUT THE
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER OR SOUTH. THIS
MOSTLY LINES UP WITH THE SWATH OF HIGHER SNOW TOTALS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS GOING
TO BE VERY STRONG. CREATING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING UP
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE BUBBLE IS ALSO VERY
STRONG, BUT WE ARE ACTUALLY ON THE NORTHERN END OF IT. THE
MAJORITY OF THE STRONG PRESSURE BUBBLE WILL STAY IN SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR THIS REASON WE DO NOT HAVE ANY WIND HEADLINES OUT
YET, JUST IN SOUTH DAKOTA. IF WINDS START TO INCREASE TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVEL (LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWEST), THEN THAT WILL BE
ISSUED TOO. OVERALL IT WILL FOR SURE SNOW ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
DAKOTA, WE ARE JUST LESS CONFIDENT IN AMOUNTS AND EXACT
LOCATION FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM FULLY MOVES OUT WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THIS WEEK AND BELOW
ZERO THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT AND WEAK WAVE COULD IMPACT THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
VFR TO START THE PERIOD, THEN DECLINING TO LIFR BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE INCOMING SNOW STORM. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY
AND GUST NEAR 40KTS TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL START AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST, BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE STATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
TO MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>003-
009>013-017>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR NDZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
TO MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ031>034-
040>046.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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