043
FXUS63 KBIS 251009
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
409 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM CROSBY TO GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN, WHERE 4 TO 9 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FALLING SNOW COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH MAY
IMPACT TRAVEL.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WEEKEND
AFTER THANKSGIVING AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
CURRENTLY, STRONG S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, NOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF CUTTING OFF. ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WEST-NORTHWEST INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ND. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW RESULTS
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THE SYSTEM'S TROWAL
WRAPS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WAVE, WITH STRONG DIV Q
FORCING ACROSS MUCH OF MY AREA. STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL
CHANGEOVER ANY LINGERING RAIN OVER MY SOUTHEAST TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LASTLY, NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING IN
THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH, AND AS EXPECTED STRONGEST SOUTHWEST
WHERE GUSTS TO 45 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING RESIDES OVER OUR LOCAL AREA
MAINLY FOR THIS MORNING, THEN MOVES INTO MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL, TROWAL INDUCED WRAP AROUND SNOW IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER MY EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON, ENDING OVER THE JAMES
VALLY BY AROUND SUNSET.
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL WE MAY RECEIVE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF
SNOW SOME LOCATIONS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK, THOUGH THE LACK
OF REALLY STRONG FORCING THIS AFTERNOON AND THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE MAIN FORCING THIS MORNING LEADS ME TO MAINTAIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE.
WITH SUNRISE, WE SHOULD START GETTING A BETTER PICTURE AS
REPORTS START COMING IN, AND THERE IS STILL TIME FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES TO A WARNING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE UP
TO 45-50 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WILL BE
BREEZY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ESPECIALLY WHEN AND WHERE SNOW IS FALLING WITH THE WIND.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED S/WV'S MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE OF THESE WAVES INDUCES SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH AN
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FORCING REGIME DEPICTED SOMEWHERE OVER OUR
REGION, CURRENTLY FAVORED BY THE NBM TO IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL (AT LEAST 3
INCHES). GEFS ENSEMBLES KEEP MOST PRECIP SOUTH, WHILE THE EC
ENSEMBLE IS CLOSER TO THE NBM.
FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND, LARGE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER HUDSON
BAY TO OUR NORTH-NORTHEAST, AND WILL PUSH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
SOUTH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. COLDEST PERIOD IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY FORECAST IN THE TEENS, ALONG WITH SUBZERO LOWS SAT NIGHT,
SUN NIGHT, AND MON NIGHT. COLDEST NIGHT RIGHT NOW EXPECTED TO BE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING, WHEN WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 30 BELOW SOME AREAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
WINTER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AVIATION
IMPACTS THROUGH THE 06Z PERIOD. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
OVER ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE IT IS EXPECTED TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FALLING SNOW.
CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ001>003-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ004-005.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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