211
FXUS63 KBIS 260745
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
145 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING
MORNING.
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60-80 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL (UP TO 3 INCHES) FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WEEKEND
AFTER THANKSGIVING AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 132 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND TRENDS. HARD TO FIND ANY GIVEN MODEL DEPICTING
REALITY, SO HAND-DRAWN SKY COVER GRIDS WERE DONE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AREA OF LOW STRATUS PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTH FASTER
THAN MODELS HAD EARLIER SHOWN, WITH A SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO
TRENDING CONDITIONS BKN-OVC FOR A PERIOD AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS.
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN FOG AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE. THUS FAR NOTHING
WIDESPREAD OR NEEDING ELEVATED MESSAGING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A FEW LIGHT
FLURRIES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY, BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. PATCHY
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING,
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS RELAX.
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO WHAT COULD BE A PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG EVENT. CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS HIGHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING, BUT WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
COULD SEE SOME LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
ERODED AND DENSE FOG HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT PLENTYWOOD,
MT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE STARTING
SPREAD INTO DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES. FORECAST CONDITIONS
SEEM HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVER FRESH SNOWFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONDITIONS HAVE
GREATLY IMPROVED OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. STILL COULD SEE
PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING, AND ROADS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OR BECOME VERY SLICK.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT
FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD IN THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COULD PROMOTE A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR FOG FORMATION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DIFFERENTIAL COOLING
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS, AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ALREADY NEAR ZERO. SOME MODELS MAINTAIN FOG, OR PERHAPS VERY
LOW CLOUDS, THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND THEN SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES NOW THAT THE SNOW HAS FULLY LEFT THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW
IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN WITH HOW WET IT HAS BEEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MATURING AND DEEPENING OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE IS AN OBVIOUS DRY SLOT
WRAPPING IN OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE LOW IS ALMOST IN THE
SAME SPOT, SO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STACKED AT THIS
POINT AND CONTINUE TO CREATE HIGH SNOWFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS.
HERE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, THE SNOW HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. FOG HAS NOW FORMED IN THE
WEST AND NORTH AS THE WET SNOW STARTS TO EVAPORATE. IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL A BAND OF SNOW HAS FORMED IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH
BISMARCK/MANDAN. WE HAD TO UPDATE THE NBM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS SINCE IT HAD NO SNOW THERE ANYMORE. SNOW IS ALSO
STARTING TO LET UP IN THE SOUTHEAST. WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
RECENT REPORTS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPGRADE TO A WARNING HAS
WORKED OUT. OVERALL WINDS UNDERPERFORMED SINCE THE SURFACE LOW
WAS FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THAN FORECASTED. STILL,
BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN MONTANA UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW AND WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH COLDER, ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS (MID 30S). STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOMINATE. FRIDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIG THROUGH MONTANA, PRODUCING A
NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS EVENT AS
IT HAS BEEN IN THE MODELS FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. WITH THIS A FEW
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS THE CURRENT
STORM. TIMING AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL WRAP EVEN COLDER AIR
DOWN FROM CANADA, COOLING OUR HIGHS DOWN TO THE TEENS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE NEGATIVES WITH WIND CHILLS
EVEN LOWER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TRAVEL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH KBIS AND KJMS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY VFR. EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF
IFR-LIFR CEILINGS AS FOG DEVELOPS THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD BE
MAINLY OVER WESTERN TERMINALS (KDIK AND KXWA). WINDS REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE 06Z PERIOD, AND
MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR-LIFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED WED EVENING INTO THU MORNING WEST AND CENTRAL.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...NH
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