909
FXUS63 KBIS 271000
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG ARE THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (60 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THIS COMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BLEED INTO
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WITH THE RESULTING CALM WINDS, AND WITH
PLENTY OF SNOW PACK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. VISIBILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE WINDS ARE WEAKEST, HAVE
DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/4 SM. WITH HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING IN THE
SOUTHWEST, FOG HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF SHALLOW
VALLEYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MID
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. FOG IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO LIFT THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING, THOUGH MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED
FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTION THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE BROADLY IN THE POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK. WHERE SKIES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT CLEAR, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL,
LOWS IN JUST BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE BROADLY EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.
AREAS OF FOG ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, THOUGH ARE ANTICIPATED TO
START LIFTING BY THE EARLY TO MID MORNING FRIDAY.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE GENERAL
NORTHWESTERN FLOW OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA. THE RESULTING
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO INDUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM IS
SUCH THAT THE BULK OF THE THIS SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA, THOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CLIP PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AN INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT
MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA DURING THIS PERIOD
REVEAL A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW SATURATED DGZ AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM. CONSIDERING THIS AND THE THE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, OVERALL SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIMITED COMPARED TO SOME OF OUR
NEIGHBORS. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS SOME DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MODEL FAMILIES AT SOME LIMITED BANDING
POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST INTO THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WEAK 700-850MB FG
FORCING SLIDES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER, BECOMING BRIEFLY ALIGNED
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS IT DOES SO. IF
THIS SCENARIO COMES TO PASS, SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES WOULD
BE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD, AND THUS ENHANCING THE
OVERALL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. AS OF CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE, THE
NBM 5.0 CALIBRATED PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY IS FROM 50 TO 80 PERCENT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER, AND OVER AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOTABLY, THIS AREA HAS SUNK FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES AS THE NBM
CATCHES UP WITH ITS CONSTITUENT ENSEMBLE FAMILIES. SIMILARLY,
THE BAND OF LOW TO MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR 4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW
HAS SUNK FURTHER SOUTH, AND REMAIN HIGHEST OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST
INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IF AND WHERE THE LIMITED
BANDING POTENTIAL DOES SET UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THIS SAME AREA COULD APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 6
INCHES OF SNOW OVERALL, THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL (10 TO 30 PERCENT)
MAY CONTINUE TO BE DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
AFTER HIGHS LINGER IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ON FRIDAY, A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, REINFORCED BY NEAR NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SEASONABLY COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROADLY IN THE TEENS ON
SATURDAY THEN DROP EVEN LOWER ON SUNDAY, FROM THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS NORTHWEST TO LOWER TEENS SOUTH. WITH THIS, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BROADLY SINK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WHILE WINDS
REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD, THEY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS. THE ENSEMBLE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DISCORDANT BEYOND THIS POINT, THOUGH BROADLY SPEAKING THE SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO CEASE AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
REESTABLISHED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING AROUND A HUDSON BAY LOW
SOMETIME TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD INVITE ANOTHER DUSTING
OVER SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT SHAKY DUE TO HOW
SHALLOW THIS DEVIATION IS. LOOKING EVEN FURTHER AHEAD, CLIMATE
ANALOGUES CONTINUE LEAN TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
LOW STRATUS AND FOG CAN BE BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THE START OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL WITH THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL
START TO TURN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>022-034>036-046-047-050.
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...JOHNSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page