625
FXUS63 KBIS 272123
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
323 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG RETURN TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
- SNOW SPREADS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY
SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NODAK, WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WHILE LOW IS NOTED
OVER WESTERN WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. OVER OUR AREA, AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS LINGER OVER
VARIOUS LOCATIONS, ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW LAYERS AND LITTLE WIND GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH.
FOR TONIGHT, AREAS OF FOG WILL RE-DEVELOP AGAIN BUT SOME
QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LOW VISIBILITY WILL BECOME GIVEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING AS SURFACE LOW MEANDERS
EAST AND WYOMING SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY FOG RELATED HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE,
OUR NEXT SNOW SYSTEM STARTS TO MAKE ITS APPROACH AS
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC LOW OPENS UP AND COMBINES WITH A SHORT
WAVE DROPPING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PROVINCES.
ON FRIDAY, AFOREMENTIONED WAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION WHILE A
MID-LEVEL LOW TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER OUR SOUTHWEST. BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH SNOW STARTING IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREADING TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTH. GREATEST
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER ALONG WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, WITH NOTABLY HIGH NBM PROBABILITIES OF OVER 3 INCHES
OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING FRIDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST,
MID-DAY FOR REMAINING PORTIONS. ADVISORY WILL THEN RUN THROUGH
THE NIGHT UNTIL SNOW DEPARTS. FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA,
EXPECT MAINLY 3 TO 5 INCHES AS NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 6 INCHES
ARE 50 PERCENT OR LESS AND NOT FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA, BUT DID
MAKE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THE MID-
LEVEL FORCING WERE TO SET UP A HEAVIER BAND.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA,
WITH THE COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 ABOVE FOR SUNDAY, ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOME GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
OVERALL WE REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE. A VARIETY OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE FLOW TUESDAY ONWARD, BRINGING LOW
TO MEDIUM SNOW CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
BROAD AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS WITH PATCHY IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG
CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, AREAS OF FOG RE-DEVELP, BUT STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW LOW VISIBILITY MAY DROP AT ANY ONE PLACE. STILL, EXPECT HIGH
CHANCES TO SEE MANY AREAS OF IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY. FRIDAY
MORNING, SNOW DEVELOPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, WITH
DETERIORATING VISIBILITY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY TO 6
AM CST /5 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ017>020-034-046-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ FRIDAY TO 6
AM CST /5 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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