270
FXUS63 KBIS 281521
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
921 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES.
- SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY, CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
ENDING LATER SATURDAY MORNING. GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THIS COMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 921 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
OVERALL, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. A MORE PRONOUNCED
BAND OF SNOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND DICKINSON
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES. PER THE
RAP, THIS AREA APPEARS SUPPORTED BY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
850-700MB LAYER ALONG WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A WEAKENING OF THE FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, SO WOULD EXPECT THE BAND TO BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN CASE ANY KIND OF UPGRADE IS WARRANTED, ALTHOUGH
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT IMPACTS. THE OTHER CONSIDERATION WILL BE POSSIBLY
EXPANDING THE ADVISORY EASTWARD. OTHERWISE, KDIK IS CURRENTLY AT
3/4SM IN SNOW. WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT MANY LOCATIONS, BUT ROADS OVERALL DO NOT APPEAR
COMPLETELY SNOW COVERED, EVEN UNDER THE BETTER RADAR RETURNS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
SNOW HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. ONLY MADE SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS
TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND LATEST CAMS. SEE BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
CURRENTLY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A S/WV TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION ALONG WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA. RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA,
CONTRIBUTING TO ANOTHER MORNING OF AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT SFC
WINDS. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAM IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW
OVERALL DECENT VISIBILITY, THUS NO PLANS FOR ANY ELEVATED
MESSAGING REGARDING THE FOG AT THIS TIME. BOWMAN RADAR ALSO
SHOWING THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW APPROACHING MY SOUTHWEST.
FOR TODAY, AFOREMENTIONED S/WV CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
ROCKIES TODAY, THEN INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL/700MB CLOSED LOW, NOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA,
DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND TODAY
AND THIS EVENING, COUPLED WITH A BROAD ISENTROPIC/UPGLIDE FLOW
REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. INITIALLY EXPECT A BAND OF
ENHANCED SNOW DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING, THEN INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND THEREAFTER AS THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING OF DIV Q FORCING COINCIDING WITH A
BAND OF FRONTOGENSIS ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BROADER
MID LEVEL FORCING/OVERRUNNING FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB LOW AND THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL
BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT
LIFT IN A MODEST DGZ, WITH SNOW RATIOS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
GREATER THAN 15:1 AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO 20:1 BY THIS EVENING.
THUS, DESPITE LIMITED LIQUID AND LOW LEVEL FORCING, WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
WITH THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, ALONG WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND ALONG THE SD BORDER, WILL KEEP THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS AT THIS TIME.
LARGE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER HUDSON BAY TO OUR NORTH-NORTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND, AND WILL PUSH A SAMPLE OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. COLDEST PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
SUNDAY, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS, ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO LOWS SAT NIGHT
AND SUN NIGHT WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
THEREAFTER, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE, WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK, EACH
BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM SNOW CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
LOW STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALONG WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND/OR FLURRIES REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS IF IT DEVELOPS
NEAR ANY TERMINAL. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW AND
ASSOCIATED LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITY TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING, EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ON TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD UP TO
15 KNOTS (MAY SEE A BIT HIGHER WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AT KDIK DURING
THE DAY TODAY).
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NDZ017>020-034-046-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.
UPDATE...JNS
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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