405
FXUS63 KBIS 282026
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
226 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING LATER SATURDAY MORNING.
GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 25
BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA CURRENTLY CONSISTS
OF RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST, WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL REGION AND A COUPLE STRONGER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THAT RIDGE, APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO RESULTING IN A
GENERALLY EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OVER ND. WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH SOME PRONOUNCED FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER EARLIER TODAY SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOWFALL
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH LIGHTER SNOW
ELSEWHERE. MODEL QPF HAS SEEMED A LITTLE HIGH, PROBABLY MORE
NOTICEABLE WITH HIGH SLRS, GIVING MODEL TOTAL SNOW FORECASTS A
BOOST. SO FAR THE HIGHEST TOTALS WE HAVE RECEIVED HAVE BEEN
AROUND 3". SURFACE OBS, RADAR, DOT ROAD CONDITION REPORTS AND
PLOW WEBCAMS AS WELL AS NDAWN WEBCAMS SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE
ADVISORY AS IS. LOCALLY BISMARCK TOTAL SNOW FORECAST CREEPS INTO
ADVISORY RANGE, BUT WITH AMOUNTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTY FORECAST TO BE LESS AND BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS, WILL
NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT LIFT IN THE DGZ
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PROFILE DROP. SO
DESPITE THE RELATIVELY LOW QPF FORECASTS, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH
TO BOOST SNOW TOTALS.
OTHERWISE, AS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT DEPICTED BY Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
EXITS TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL
CROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, SUPPLYING ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT THAT WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION.
GENERALLY, LOOKING AT 1 TO 4" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BEFORE THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND SNOW
ENDS ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WITH DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
MOSTLY NORTHWEST WITH SOME TRANSIENT TROUGHS AND RIDGES RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS DURING THE WEEK. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOW TEENS SOUTHWEST, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING
AGAIN JUST AS QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY BY AROUND TUE/WED. ALONG WITH THIS PATTERN THERE ARE
PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME THERE ARE
NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
SURFACE LOW LOCATED WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS PRODUCING SNOW
ACROSS THE STATE WITH RADAR SHOWING THE HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST. KDIK HAS BEEN DOWN TO 1/2SM IN SNOW, BUT EXPECTING
SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BAND OF SNOW IS SLOWLY APPROACHING KBIS SO WE SHOULD SEE SNOW
STARTING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT OVERALL THE NEXT 24
HOURS SHOULD SEE MVFR OR WORSE CATEGORIES THE MAJORITY OF THE
TIME.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NDZ017>020-031>034-040>046-050-051.
DISCUSSION...JNS
AVIATION...JNS
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