563
FXUS63 KBIS 291218
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
618 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, BEFORE ENDING LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 25 BELOW
ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW AND FLUCTUATIONS IN DAILY
TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 611 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES MOST AREAS, AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION, WITH THE MORE DEFINED RADAR RETURNS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED IMPULSES
WITHIN THE FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUED SNOW IN EASTERN
MT, ALONG WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW STRATUS MOVING TOWARDS MY
WEST. EDITS TO THE FORECAST WERE MINOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
CURRENTLY, UPPER LEVEL S/WV TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 700MB LOW
PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND,
WITH THE MORE MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW NOW MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH
NOW AS FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK MOVES
EAST, ENHANCED FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH, AND
DECREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. HOWEVER, WILL SEE CONTINUED
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE 500MB S/WV ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FOR MOST OF THIS MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW YET BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN LATER TODAY. THUS,
OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 18Z (NOON CST)
WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE.
MID LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN
ITS WAKE AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE HIGH ONLY SLOWLY
BUILDS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT, LINGERING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT. WHILE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST, THE GENERAL TREND IS
EXPECTED TO BE DECREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY-TONIGHT-THROUGH
SUNDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME COLD NIGHTS TONIGHT AND SUN
NIGHT THANKS TO OUR RECENT SNOWFALL. WIDESPREAD SUBZERO LOWS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS, ALONG WITH MIN WIND
CHILLS NEARING 25 BELOW ZERO SOME LOCATIONS.
WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES PERIODICALLY MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. ONE OF THESE
WAVES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAVORED TO IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY, SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT, AND ANOTHER COLD PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NBM HASN'T CAUGHT ON YET, WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME
BREEZY WINDS WITH THE COLD FROPA AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND, WITH VISIBILITY
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5SM RANGE IN SNOW. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY, ENDING IN WESTERN ND BY 15Z, AND IN
CENTRAL ND BY 21Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHERLY THIS MORNING, THEN MORE NORTHWESTERLY TODAY
AND TONIGHT, PEAKING AT ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ017>020-031>035-040>047-050-051.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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