353
FXUS63 KBIS 292015
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
215 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 25
BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW AND FLUCTUATIONS IN DAILY
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
MID-AFTERNOON RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WIDESPREAD WEAK RETURNS
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY. LATEST KJMS OB SHOWED LIGHT SNOW HAD ENDED THERE.
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER.
THE TROUGH THAT HAS SUPPORTED SNOWFALL FROM LAST NIGHT THROUGH TODAY
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK
RIDGING LATE. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED
AROUND EASTERN MT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS ND LATE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS, SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHWEST ND AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ND. SHORT RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INCLUDING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
CURRENTLY, FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN BUT WE
WILL MONITOR.
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO
TO 10 BELOW (WEST COLDEST TONIGHT). WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO FOR SOME LOCATIONS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT (NOT REACHING CRITERIA FOR ANY
HEADLINES). AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF US BY
MONDAY, RETURN FLOW SETS UP, LEADING TO A NOTABLY WARMER TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS BACK TO THE MID 20S AND LOW 30S. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A CLIPPER AND STRONG COLD FRONT CROSS
THE STATE ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BACK IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. AT THIS MOMENT, NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED BASED ON NBM AND ECMWF/GFS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE AND MULTIPLE TROUGHS AND
RIDGES CROSSING THE REGION. THIS LEADS TO LOWER PREDICTABILITY
FOR SPECIFICS AND IS REFLECTED IN LONGER TERM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE. NBM 1D VIEWER SHOWS WIDE SPREAD IN MIN/MAX TEMP PROBS
ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WORTH
NOTING ALSO IS THAT ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES FROM
BOTH ECMWF AND NAEFS, ALONG WITH ECMWF EFI ARE NOT HIGHLIGHTING
AT THIS TIME ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK,
OTHER THAN THE ANOMALOUS COLD THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD COVER LEADING TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE
REGION, WITH KJMS STILL RECEIVING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND LOW CIGS
LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS. THE MAIN APPROACH WITH THE TAFS WAS
TO MAINTAIN MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW (MOSTLY BASED ON CURRENT
OBS) THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS (RAP, HRRR)
FOR TAF SITES SHOW SATURATED LOW LEVEL PROFILES AT TIMES WHICH
IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
SOME LIGHT SNOW ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGE APPROACHING
KBIS, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CIGS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JNS
AVIATION...JNS
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