532
FXUS63 KBIS 292350
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 25
BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW AND FLUCTUATIONS IN DAILY
TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEING FOUND UNDER LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS. SOME OF THESE ARE FROM THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WHILE SOME ARE BEING ENHANCED FROM LAKE
SAKAKAWEA. HAVE ADDED IN SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TONIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
MID-AFTERNOON RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WIDESPREAD WEAK RETURNS
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY. LATEST KJMS OB SHOWED LIGHT SNOW HAD ENDED THERE.
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER.
THE TROUGH THAT HAS SUPPORTED SNOWFALL FROM LAST NIGHT THROUGH TODAY
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK
RIDGING LATE. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED
AROUND EASTERN MT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS ND LATE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS, SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHWEST ND AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ND. SHORT RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INCLUDING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
CURRENTLY, FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN BUT WE
WILL MONITOR.
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO
TO 10 BELOW (WEST COLDEST TONIGHT). WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO FOR SOME LOCATIONS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT (NOT REACHING CRITERIA FOR ANY
HEADLINES). AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF US BY
MONDAY, RETURN FLOW SETS UP, LEADING TO A NOTABLY WARMER TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS BACK TO THE MID 20S AND LOW 30S. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A CLIPPER AND STRONG COLD FRONT CROSS
THE STATE ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BACK IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. AT THIS MOMENT, NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED BASED ON NBM AND ECMWF/GFS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE AND MULTIPLE TROUGHS AND
RIDGES CROSSING THE REGION. THIS LEADS TO LOWER PREDICTABILITY
FOR SPECIFICS AND IS REFLECTED IN LONGER TERM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE. NBM 1D VIEWER SHOWS WIDE SPREAD IN MIN/MAX TEMP PROBS
ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WORTH
NOTING ALSO IS THAT ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES FROM
BOTH ECMWF AND NAEFS, ALONG WITH ECMWF EFI ARE NOT HIGHLIGHTING
AT THIS TIME ANY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK,
OTHER THAN THE ANOMALOUS COLD THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS, AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS COULD BRING SOME MVFR TO PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR
CLOUDS COULD THEN LINGER ACROSS MOST CENTRAL AND EASTERN SITES
TONIGHT, WITH SOME VFR CLOUDS IN THE WEST. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CLOUD COVER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
SITES MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FOUND ON SUNDAY, PERHAPS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...JNS
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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