976
FXUS63 KBIS 012102
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND LOW TO MEDIUM (10 TO
40%) CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ON TUESDAY.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK, RESULTING IN PERIODIC LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SNOW,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN DAY-
TO-DAY TEMPERATURES.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE
START OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA WILL ALSO BE FOUND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS, DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT.
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WARM RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL START WARMING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR ZERO TO AROUND 10
DEGREES, ALTHOUGH MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WARMING TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO BE FOUND ON TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. NBM PRODUCED
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY PUBLISHED, HOWEVER LOWERED
THESE TO THE NBM50TH PERCENTILE GIVEN ABUNDANT SNOW DEPTH ACROSS
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE STATE TUESDAY AS WELL. THIS COULD STILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOW TO MEDIUM AS CURRENT HI-RES
DATA NOT SHOWING A LOT OF ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS. TUESDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE THE MORE INCREASED CHANCES FOR POPS WITH BETTER
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
CURRENT MODELS HINTING THE UPPER WAVE MAY OUTRUN THE SURFACE
FEATURES, MAKING ORGANIZE SNOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. NBM
CURRENTLY HAS 10 TO 40% CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES COMING IN THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST AN INCH ARE AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE FRONT
AND WAVE STILL LOOK POTENT THUS PLACED IN WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME. LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, IF
THE MID LAYERS DRY OUT QUICKER. BREEZY WINDS COULD ALSO BRING
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE MENTIONED FRONT COLD TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS FORECAST UP TO 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. SOME ISOLATED DANGEROUS WINDS CHILLS ARE
POSSIBLE. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FOUND ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY ALSO LINGER. SOME ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE SAKAKAWEA. BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IF
STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN PERHAPS
SOME NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY THEN PUSH THROUGH
TO END THE WEEK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EACH BRINGING LOW (AROUND
20%) CHANCES OF SNOW. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE WAVES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS
ALSO RETURN WITH THESE DISTURBANCES. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW
THEN LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SIMILAR WAVE AS THIS PAST WEEKEND IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE
CLUSTERS, INDICATING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD TO START THE
WEEKEND ARE AROUND 20 TO 50 PERCENT. THESE CHANCES LOWER YET
REMAIN 10 TO 20 PERCENT LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HIGH ACCUMULATIONS
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE A SURFACE FRONT SETS UP AND THE LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT SETS UP. THIS UNCERTAINTY IN FRONT LOCATION LIKELY IS THE
REASON FOR LARGE SPREADS IN NBM TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND WILL WANT TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE
LATEST FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE SAKAKAWEA. LOW VFR TO PERHAPS
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A CLOUD DECK MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST SITES
WILL THEN SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL ALSO BE FOUND IN THE FAR WEST TUESDAY MORNING. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING A
BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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