068
FXUS63 KBIS 020030
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND LOW TO MEDIUM (10
TO 40 PERCENT) CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK, RESULTING IN PERIODIC LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SNOW,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN DAY-
TO-DAY TEMPERATURES.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 30
BELOW ZERO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW FOG, LIKELY IN THE FORM OF TINY ICE
CRYSTALS, DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
EVENING AND MIGRATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS, A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ASIDE FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS, AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE SHOULD IT DEVELOP. A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MOST OTHER
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WERE TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. DID CONVERT THE LOW CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
FLURRIES AS THERE AS BEEN NO RECENT GROUND-TRUTH VERIFICATION OF
ANY SNOWFALL UNDER THE CLOUDS STREAMING OFF OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE
START OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA WILL ALSO BE FOUND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS, DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT.
WARMING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WARM RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL START WARMING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR ZERO TO AROUND 10
DEGREES, ALTHOUGH MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WARMING TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO BE FOUND ON TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. NBM PRODUCED
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY PUBLISHED, HOWEVER LOWERED
THESE TO THE NBM50TH PERCENTILE GIVEN ABUNDANT SNOW DEPTH ACROSS
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE STATE TUESDAY AS WELL. THIS COULD STILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOW TO MEDIUM AS CURRENT HI-RES
DATA NOT SHOWING A LOT OF ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS. TUESDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE THE MORE INCREASED CHANCES FOR POPS WITH BETTER
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
CURRENT MODELS HINTING THE UPPER WAVE MAY OUTRUN THE SURFACE
FEATURES, MAKING ORGANIZE SNOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. NBM
CURRENTLY HAS 10 TO 40% CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES COMING IN THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST AN INCH ARE AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE FRONT
AND WAVE STILL LOOK POTENT THUS PLACED IN WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW AT THIS TIME. LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, IF
THE MID LAYERS DRY OUT QUICKER. BREEZY WINDS COULD ALSO BRING
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE MENTIONED FRONT COLD TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS FORECAST UP TO 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. SOME ISOLATED DANGEROUS WINDS CHILLS ARE
POSSIBLE. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FOUND ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY ALSO LINGER. SOME ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE SAKAKAWEA. BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IF
STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN PERHAPS
SOME NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY THEN PUSH THROUGH
TO END THE WEEK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EACH BRINGING LOW (AROUND
20%) CHANCES OF SNOW. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE WAVES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS
ALSO RETURN WITH THESE DISTURBANCES. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW
THEN LOOK TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SIMILAR WAVE AS THIS PAST WEEKEND IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE
CLUSTERS, INDICATING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD TO START THE
WEEKEND ARE AROUND 20 TO 50 PERCENT. THESE CHANCES LOWER YET
REMAIN 10 TO 20 PERCENT LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HIGH ACCUMULATIONS
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE A SURFACE FRONT SETS UP AND THE LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT SETS UP. THIS UNCERTAINTY IN FRONT LOCATION LIKELY IS THE
REASON FOR LARGE SPREADS IN NBM TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND WILL WANT TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE
LATEST FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
ALL TERMINALS BEGIN THE 00Z TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
AREAS FROM AROUND KBIS TO KJMS COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN
THE FORM OF ICE CRYSTALS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING, AND ITS COVERAGE
IF IT DOES DEVELOP, IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING, LOCATION, AND COVERAGE OF SNOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AT AROUND 15 KTS, WITH SOME
25-30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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