048
FXUS63 KBIS 041542
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY. PATCHY DRIFTING SNOW
POSSIBLE.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NEAR DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER MANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY, THEN
SIGNIFICANTLY COOL FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
TO START THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
THE WARM FRONT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA NOW, WITH IT
LOW STRATUS HAS FORMED. IN A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED. OTHER THAN THAT NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST NUDGING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE LOW REMAINS OVER SASKATCHEWAN,
WITH TROUGH DIPPING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHEAST WYOMING.
WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO OUR AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES NOW HOLDING STEADY OR CLIMBING A LITTLE BIT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH A
VARIETY OF WEAK SHORT WAVES NOTED UPSTREAM.
FOR TODAY, WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WITH
THAT SAID, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
AS SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH MANITOBA ON ITS WAY INTO ONTARIO,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIFTING SNOW.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE FIRST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT
WAVES/CLIPPERS DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW AND OVER OUR
AREA BRINGING LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES (~20 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR
LIGHT SNOW, THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED.
WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT THE
COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT COME UNTIL LATER FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER, AND NOT MUCH WARMER ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION,
SATURDAY MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (~20 TO 50 PERCENT) MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS BELOW ZERO FOR
LOWS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSOURI DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A VERY MODEST REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES, WITH
WARMER AIR PUSHING IN MORE IN EARNEST TO START THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THEN GETS A BIT SKETCHY AS WE APPROACH
MID-WEEK, AS LATEST NBM ANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE A SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD, GENERALLY A 15
TO 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE.
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THE DAILY CHANCES FOR SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THESE
LOW CEILINGS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION, LATER THIS MORNING LOW CEILINGS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, SPREADING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT, POSSIBLY DIPPING TO LIFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. ALSO, LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT,
REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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