528
FXUS63 KBIS 121826
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 40 BELOW
ZERO.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
WE ALLOWED BOTH THE EXTREME COLD WARNING AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON CST AS
PLANNED, WITH VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST
VALUES TO START THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW IS ON AND OFF ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE BACK IN MONTANA, SO
CARRYING LOW POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
BEFORE INCREASING THIS EVENING. WE ALSO HAVE SOME POPS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA WHERE THE HAZEN AREA HAS BEEN SEEING
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 907 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES, WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AND BREEZY WINDS DROPPING
APPARENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE -30 TO -40 RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS STILL
OFF TO OUR WEST, AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, WE CONTINUE TO SEE
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AND DECREASED
VISIBILITIES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, CORROBORATED BY
NDDOT TRAVEL CAMERAS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION
DURING THE DAY TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE WE
NEED TO MOVE UP THE START TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THAT GOES INTO EFFECT IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING. HEADLINES
CONTINUE AS PLANNED, WITH THE EXTREME COLD WARNING AND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT
NOON CST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND WILL
BE TONIGHT, THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY WITHIN AN AREA OF CHANNELED
VORTICITY AND EXPECT LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES THIS MORNING AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH MAYBE A HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. ADDED A BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS A START AND WILL PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY
SHIFT.
NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES. AS OF 6 AM CST WIND CHILLS WERE AS LOW AS 38 BELOW
AT SITES IN BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ND, WITH
PLENTY OF TIME TO DROP INTO WARNING CRITERIA. WIND CHILLS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 28 TO 36 BELOW RANGE IN THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
CURRENTLY, LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AROUND 12
UTC, BEFORE ABATING DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE CENTER OF
THE ARCTIC HIGH TRACKS OVER US. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
CURRENTLY COVERED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM
CST. VISIBILITIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WE
MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY, IF NOT EXPECT IT WILL NOT NEED TO
BE EXTENDED YET AGAIN. CURRENT WIND CHILLS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
30-35 BELOW RANGE OVER NORTHWEST ND AND 25 TO 30 BELOW IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL, BUT WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROP
THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT EXTREME COLD WARNING OR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FOR TODAY, WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE EXTREME COLD WARNING IN THE NORTHWEST, AND THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA ARE
FORECAST TO END AT NOON. THEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WE WILL BE UNDER A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ND, AND INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUING DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS, WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW CLIPPING WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA GENERALLY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MEAN NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING CLIPPING THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE TONIGHT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
DECENT QPF AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS SOME DECENT 70H FG
FORCING TRAVERSING THIS AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. AS YOU GO DOWN TO
850 MB THE FG FORCING DROPS OFF QUITE A BIT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS QUITE WELL WITH THE STRONGEST OMEGA SITUATED
WITHIN THE 70H-60H PRESSURE LEVEL. WITH THIS SETUP, WE COULD SEE
A GENERAL BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SET UP OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ND. WE
WOULD ALSO LIKE TO SEE SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES (GENERALLY ABOVE
6 DEG C/KM) IN ORDER TO GET SOME SIGNIFICANT BANDING. WE JUST
DON'T QUITE MAKE IT, WITH THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES REMAINING
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE. THE
DEVELOPMENTAL NBM 24 HOUR PROBABILITY OF 2 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW, IS SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITIES (GREATER THE 70 PERCENT)
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ND. THIS INCLUDES BOWMAN, MOST OF SLOPE AND
ADAMS COUNTIES, AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHERN GOLDEN VALLEY
COUNTY. MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (40-70 PERCENT) INCLUDE PORTIONS
OF BILLINGS, STARK AND HETTINGER COUNTIES. PROBABILITIES OF 4 OR
MORE INCHES IS ONLY IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY FOR PORTIONS OF
BOWMAN AND SLOPE COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING IS SITUATED MORE
TOWARDS THE TOP OF THE SATURATED PROFILE, ALMOST THE ENTIRE
PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO 600MB IS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH SNOW RATIOS, IN EXCESS OF 20 TO
1. PORTIONS OF OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ND.
IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, WE
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER SLR VALUES, WILL BE A LITTLE GENEROUS
WITH OUR ADVISORY AND INCLUDE ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST (GOLDEN
VALLEY, BILLINGS, STARK, SLOPE, BOWMAN, HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES. IN GENERAL, WE EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
ND. WITH THE HIGH SLR'S SOME REPORTS OF AROUND 6 INCHES OF LIGHT
FLUFFY SNOW WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM
(AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS) SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. WE DO SEE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SO THIS TIMEFRAME MAY BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR FOR IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
OUR CURRENT COLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS GO INTO SATURDAY, BUT WE
MAY NEED TO EXTEND THESE INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE TREND HAS
ACTUALLY BEEN TOWARDS A QUICKER WARMUP SUNDAY THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT. INITIALLY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY EVENING LOOK
TO WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST, BUT ALSO INTO
CENTRAL ND. ALREADY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON CURRENT NBM ENSEMBLE
FORECAST HIGHS APPROACH 40 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH A
BUNCH OF SNOW FALLING THERE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, IT
MIGHT BE A LITTLE HARD TO ACHIEVE THOSE HIGHS. WE'LL SEE. THE
WARMUP CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 40 DEGREE
READINGS FORECAST BY TUESDAY. THEN WE TREND BACK TOWARDS REALITY
BY MID-WEEK.
AFTER THE SNOW SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WE ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THEN WE START TO
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CLIPPERS TRACKING THROUGH A QUASI-ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WITH OUR WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK,
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD PROBABLY BE A MIX.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST
ND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES BUT EXPECT MOSTLY VFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS, INCLUDING KDIK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING
THE HAZEN AREA DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA, WITH IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND PROBABLY SOME BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
THE STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE BISMARCK/MANDAN
AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AT KBIS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY,
BECOMING LIGHT BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH KDIK
THE PRIMARY TERMINAL TO SEE IMPACTS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT,
WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, ALTHOUGH A
STRAY MVFR CEILING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DID ALSO INCLUDE PROB30
GROUPS FOR KBIS AND KXWA FOR LIGHT SNOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...JONES
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