109
FXUS63 KBIS 122051
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
251 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE WIND CHILLS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, A DEEP CLOSED LOW WAS PLACED OVER ONTARIO, WITH
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE A STOUT ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUED TO
EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES, WITH A MODEST ENOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PERSISTED INTO THE AFTERNOON LONGER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. 20 UTC TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
AROUND ZERO SOUTH TO -10 F NORTH, WITH WIND CHILLS ANYWHERE
FROM -15 TO -35 F. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND A MODEST
BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THE PRIMARY AREA OF ACCUMULATIONS. AS
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR POTENTIALLY
HIGHER SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ADVERTISING
THE BULK OF THE PROFILE UP TO AROUND 600MB WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE, OVERLAPPING WITH MODEST OMEGA. THE HREF-BASED
SNOWBAND PROBABILITY TRACKER DOES NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR BANDED SNOW, WHICH FITS WITH DETERMINISTIC AND
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALSO FITS WITH HREF
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR BEING
EXTREMELY LOW. LAPSE RATES, ANOTHER NEEDED INGREDIENT FOR TRUE
BANDED SNOW, LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST, ALTHOUGH THEY DO INCREASE
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING
6 INCHES OF SNOW TOP OUT AROUND 15 PERCENT, SO COMFORTABLE WITH
THE CURRENT HEADLINE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA GOES INTO EFFECT EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED AND HIGHEST IN THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE. FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, SATURDAY,
AND SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY FROM -5 TO -15 TONIGHT, AND -10
TO -20 TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY 5 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO TO 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS
PERSIST, APPROACHING -40 F ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
ADVISORY AREA, BUT EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE WE WILL SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW, WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO AROUND -20 WHICH
COULD PROVE DANGEROUS IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE SNOW.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING SATURDAY AS CLOUDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, ALTHOUGH STILL WITH THOSE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PLACES THE SURFACE HIGH IN OUR FAVORABLE
SPOT SATURDAY NIGHT THAT TYPICALLY PRODUCES TEMPERATURES COLDER
THAN FORECAST, ALTHOUGH AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING IN FROM MONTANA COULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
TANKING SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BEFORE MODERATING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH PER ENSEMBLE AND BLENDED GUIDANCE ON AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN TO START NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE. SUNDAY WILL
STILL HAVE MODEST SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE AS THE WARMER AIR
FILTERS IN, WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST, BUT WE WILL THEN HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON MONDAY, AND THE
WIDESPREAD ON 40S ON TUESDAY, WITH LOW NBM PERCENTILE SPREAD
SHOWING STRONG AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THIS
OUTCOME. AFTER TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IN THE BROAD SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INCREASES AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHORTWAVES
POTENTIALLY MOVE THROUGH, SHOWN BY BLENDED POPS PRODUCING LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS INTRODUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION, SO THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER, AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS PER THE LATEST ECMWF
EFI. CIPS EXTENDED ANALOGS AND CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST
ND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES BUT EXPECT MOSTLY VFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS, INCLUDING KDIK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING
THE HAZEN AREA DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA, WITH IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND PROBABLY SOME BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
THE STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE BISMARCK/MANDAN
AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AT KBIS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY,
BECOMING LIGHT BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH KDIK
THE PRIMARY TERMINAL TO SEE IMPACTS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT,
WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, ALTHOUGH A
STRAY MVFR CEILING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DID ALSO INCLUDE PROB30
GROUPS FOR KBIS AND KXWA FOR LIGHT SNOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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