610
FXUS63 KBIS 130412
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1012 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FRIGID WIND CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE WIND CHILLS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
SNOW HAS SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, WITH
SNOW INCREASING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN DICKINSON. SNOW
AMOUNT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, BUT HAVE BUMPED UP CHANCES
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH
HEADLINES THAT ARE IN PLACE. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS
WILL SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. OTHERWISE, FRIGID
WIND CHILLS REMAIN OVER AREAS WITH ONGOING COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY, WITH COLDEST READINGS BELOW -30 REMAINING OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, A DEEP CLOSED LOW WAS PLACED OVER ONTARIO, WITH
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE A STOUT ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUED TO
EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES, WITH A MODEST ENOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PERSISTED INTO THE AFTERNOON LONGER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. 20 UTC TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
AROUND ZERO SOUTH TO -10 F NORTH, WITH WIND CHILLS ANYWHERE
FROM -15 TO -35 F. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND A MODEST
BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THE PRIMARY AREA OF ACCUMULATIONS. AS
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR POTENTIALLY
HIGHER SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ADVERTISING
THE BULK OF THE PROFILE UP TO AROUND 600MB WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE, OVERLAPPING WITH MODEST OMEGA. THE HREF-BASED
SNOWBAND PROBABILITY TRACKER DOES NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR BANDED SNOW, WHICH FITS WITH DETERMINISTIC AND
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALSO FITS WITH HREF
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR BEING
EXTREMELY LOW. LAPSE RATES, ANOTHER NEEDED INGREDIENT FOR TRUE
BANDED SNOW, LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST, ALTHOUGH THEY DO INCREASE
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING
6 INCHES OF SNOW TOP OUT AROUND 15 PERCENT, SO COMFORTABLE WITH
THE CURRENT HEADLINE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA GOES INTO EFFECT EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED AND HIGHEST IN THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE. FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, SATURDAY,
AND SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY FROM -5 TO -15 TONIGHT, AND -10
TO -20 TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY 5 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO TO 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS
PERSIST, APPROACHING -40 F ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
ADVISORY AREA, BUT EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE WE WILL SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW, WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO AROUND -20 WHICH
COULD PROVE DANGEROUS IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE SNOW.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING SATURDAY AS CLOUDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, ALTHOUGH STILL WITH THOSE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PLACES THE SURFACE HIGH IN OUR FAVORABLE
SPOT SATURDAY NIGHT THAT TYPICALLY PRODUCES TEMPERATURES COLDER
THAN FORECAST, ALTHOUGH AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING IN FROM MONTANA COULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
TANKING SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BEFORE MODERATING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH PER ENSEMBLE AND BLENDED GUIDANCE ON AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN TO START NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE. SUNDAY WILL
STILL HAVE MODEST SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE AS THE WARMER AIR
FILTERS IN, WITH FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S EAST TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST, BUT WE WILL THEN HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON MONDAY, AND THE
WIDESPREAD ON 40S ON TUESDAY, WITH LOW NBM PERCENTILE SPREAD
SHOWING STRONG AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THIS
OUTCOME. AFTER TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IN THE BROAD SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INCREASES AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHORTWAVES
POTENTIALLY MOVE THROUGH, SHOWN BY BLENDED POPS PRODUCING LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS INTRODUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION, SO THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER, AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS PER THE LATEST ECMWF
EFI. CIPS EXTENDED ANALOGS AND CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 705 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
IFR VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS AREA EXPECTED OVER THIS
AREA DURING PERIODS WHERE THE SNOW HAS EASED UP. CEILINGS WILL
THEN IMPROVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO VFR LEVELS. OVER
NORTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR NDZ031>033-
040-041-043-044.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JJS
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