923
FXUS63 KBIS 131009
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
409 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDING THIS MORNING SOUTHWEST
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS NORTH AND EAST CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK, THEN TREND LOWER LATE WEEK.
- A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER
FAR SOUTHWEST ND, ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 12 FROM BAKER MT,
TO BOWMAN, TO HETTINGER. THIS BAND WAS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH. TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS, LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE SNOW
EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS SIDNEY MT AND WATFORD CITY, AND AS FAR
EAST AS HAZEN, BISMARCK MANDAN AND LINTON. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO HEAR WHAT TYPE OF ACCUMULATIONS WE END UP WITH
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW HAS
PERSISTED THE LONGEST, GIVEN THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE TIME
THE COLUMN TO 600 MB WAS NEAR OR IN THE DGZ AND TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, COULD PROBABLY SUPPORT SLR VALUES OF
20 TO 30 TO 1. WE'LL SEE.
IT'S LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL END BY 12Z,
EVEN IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, BUT WITH ROADS STILL SNOW COVERED
WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONE UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. ONCE LIGHT SNOW ENDS THIS MORNING, WE BEGIN A NICE
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, OUR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. CURRENT WIND CHILLS IN THE ADVISORY ARE MOSTLY 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO. NO PLANS OTHER THAN CONTINUING THE ADVISORY EARLY
THIS MORNING.
A 1041 MB SURFACE HIGH TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY, RESULTING IN A COLD DAY TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO NORTH AND EAST, TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT, A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL SHUNT
THE ARCTIC AIR OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY, THIS EVENING,
THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL ND WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR COLD TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, STRONG WARM ADVECTION
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY FORECAST TO BE ON THE RISE IN
WESTERN ND THIS EVENING, AND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING OVER
CENTRAL ND LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. OVERALL, IT
WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO
20 BELOW RANGE. WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A COLD AS
TONIGHT, BUT WIND CHILLS OF 30 TO 35 BELOW ARE FORECAST ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND ALSO IN FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE MAY BE A
FEW TWEAKS ON THE DAY SHIFT.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN ND LATE THIS EVENING, AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PATCHY BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS REMAINING LOOSE SNOW.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S OVER CENTRAL ND TO THE 30S
WEST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. NBM ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SPREADS REMAIN PRETTY LOW
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE MILD
TEMPERATURES. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WITH WESTERLY CHINOOK WINDS
ENCROACHING INTO THE STATE. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH 40 DEGREE READINGS FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WE COOL A LITTLE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A CLIPPER THAT
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
COMES OFF THE PACIFIC AND TRACKS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AS IT TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES. THEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS IT
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EACH OF THESE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME WINDS. THE FIRST SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY AS WE ARE SOUTH OF THE LOW INT THE WARM/DRY SECTOR.
THE SECOND IS A STRONGER WAVE AND WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH IT, A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY,
AHEAD OF THE LOW, THEN SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR GETS
PULLED OVER THE STATE BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. IF THE FIRST
SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE BREEZY, THE SECOND DEFINITELY LOOKS WINDY.
IT'S STILL A WAYS OUT, BUT BETWEEN THE CURRENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION (30 TO 60 PERCENT) GIVEN BY THE NBM, THE
POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, WE COULD SEE SOME
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
LATEST ECMWF EFI IS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING EARTH SHATTERING, BUT
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER WESTERN ND WEDNESDAY
AND EASTERN ND THURSDAY.
WE TRANSITION FROM A LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
TO A MODERATELY HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. BUT
THERE IS DEFINITELY A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES AFTER
WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE DROP IS THE MAIN QUESTION, AND
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW, WHATEVER
HAPPENS, PROBABLY WON'T LAST TOO LONG.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
IFR VISIBILITY AND MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS IN FALLING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WHERE SNOW IS NOT FALLING. THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH CENTRAL COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IF SNOW PUSHES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL THEN IMPROVE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO VFR LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MOSTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WINDS VARIABLE
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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