821
FXUS63 KBIS 141203
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
603 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE AND VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, THEN TREND COLDER LATER IN THE WEEK AGAIN.
- A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
THE GRADUAL WARMUP ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CONTINUES, AS
SOUTH WINDS BEGIN GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH. BLOWING SNOW HAS ALSO
BEGUN WITH THOSE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES, THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 9AM
CT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A DEEP LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS A CONTINUATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING COLD
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AROUND 35 BELOW ZERO.
AS THAT RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY, THE
WEST WILL WARM WELL ABOVE ZERO ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S, ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S. THE
CENTRAL AND EAST WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY FROM THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COTEAU. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
TODAY, AND COULD SLIGHTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE, BRINGING
WARMER AIR TO THE STATE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 30S AND
40S. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN
THE 40S FROM A WARM FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG WITH THE WARM FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST IS GUSTS
NEAR 40MPH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. THE EFI
FORECAST VALUE IS 0.85, WHICH NORMALLY IS ADVISORY LEVEL. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS TREND AND POSSIBLY NEED AN ADVISORY
TUESDAY BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXTENDING OFF
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT WILL STAY IN CANADA.
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL FORM, THIS TIME AIMED AT
NORTH DAKOTA. THE WEST MAY BE BREEZY FROM ANOTHER WARM FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT LOW LOOKS TO START MOVING THROUGH
THE STATE, BRINGING RAIN, SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS. IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY, RAIN WILL FALL STATE-WIDE,
THEN THURSDAY THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW. THE FAR NORTH WILL HAVE THE LONGEST RESIDENT TIME IN THE
COLDER PRECIP, SO ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THERE.
OTHERWISE LESS THAN 1 INCH IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY WILL
ALSO BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND THE TEENS TO 20S ELSEWHERE. VERY STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL HAVE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE EFI VALUES ARE AROUND 0.95 (WHICH IS
USUALLY A WARNING) AND A SHIFT OF TAILS OF 2, INDICATING A STRONGER
THAN NORMAL EVENT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
COULD BE IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE.
WITH FALLING SNOW THURSDAY, THIS WOULD CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
WEST ABOVE FREEZING, ELSEWHERE 20S. SATURDAY A THIRD CLIPPER
WILL MISS TO THE NORTH, BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO 25 IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR WITH PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 30KTS FROM THE SOUTH, CALMING AFTER SUNSET. PERIOD OF
WIND SHEAR ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH FORECAST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-051.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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