022
FXUS63 KBIS 141958
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
158 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK.
- A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION,
ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- A TREND BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS MAY VARY
GREATLY FROM NORTHEAST (COOLER) TO SOUTHWEST (WARMER).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
WESTERLY AND LIGHT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE CONTINUING
TO SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BLOWING SNOW, THOUGH LOCALIZED
DRIFTING SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT,
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE FILTERING IN RESULTING
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ARE LIKELY IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES,
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK. THE FIRST
CLIPPER IS SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. DETERMINISTIC MODELS, BACKED BY THE NBM ENSEMBLE,
SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION REMAINING MOSTLY IN CANADA. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND
ALONG THE DOWNSLOPE OF THE MISSOURI COTEAU.
A SECOND, AND LIKELY STRONGER, CLIPPER MAY IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MOST FAVORED TIMING. WITH HIGHS FORECAST
FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, THOUGH A LITTLE
SNOW COULD MIX IN AS WELL. WHILE LIMITED MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MOST AREAS, POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PERIPHERIES. THESE
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE OBVIOUS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
MORE HIGHER RES MODEL DATA IS INGESTED. OF NOTE WITH THIS
CLIPPER IS A CONTINUED ENHANCED EFI WIND GUST SIGNAL OF .9 FOR
MUCH OF THE STATE, AND .95 FOR PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THIS
SUGGESTS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF A HIGHER IMPACT WIND EVENT.
SHOULD THIS COINCIDE WITH ANY NEW SNOWFALL, WHICH SEEMS TO BE
THE FAVORED SOLUTION TO AT LEAST SOME EXTENT, THEN SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN SOME LOCATIONS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
THERE ARE THEN HINTS OF A THIRD SYSTEM TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK,
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MUCH HIGHER IN OVERALL DEVELOPMENT,
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE
WORKWEEK. THE WARMEST DAY IS PROGGED TO BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE NBM PRODUCES A ROLLER
COASTER OF COOLER, WARMER, AND COOLER AGAIN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE ALL SO FREQUENT
PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST DAYS AND NIGHTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOCALIZED GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOST BLOWING SNOW SHOULD
BE MORE IN THE FORM OF DRIFTING (SHALLOW) SNOW, THEREFORE
VISIBILITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 6SM. ANY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THEY BEGIN
TRANSITIONING TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. POCKETS OF LLWS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
MAINLY IN CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN REDEVELOPING IN
PARTS OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING
POCKETS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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