459
FGUS73 KBIS 142117
ESFBIS
NDC015-059-150530-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
..MISSOURI RIVER BELOW GARRISON DAM ICE UPDATE
AFTER THE MOST RECENT COLD WEATHER, THE MISSOURI RIVER HAS BEEN
PRODUCING ICE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE BISMARCK AND MANDAN AREA. OVER
NIGHT, THAT ICE MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED AS ICE BEGAN TO ACCUMULATE DOWN
THROUGH THE KIMBALL BOTTOM AND UNIVERSITY OF MARY REACH OF THE RIVER.
AS OF 1:00 PM ON SUNDAY, DECEMBER 14TH THE ICE IS ACCUMULATING IN THE
AREA AROUND THE FOX ISLAND BOAT RAMP. THIS LEADING EDGE OF ICE FILLED
RIVER CHANNEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UPSTREAM THROUGH THE BISMARCK AND
MANDAN AREA AND CAUSE THE RIVER TO CONTINUE TO RISE AS FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONSTRICTED BY ICE.
INTERESTINGLY, WHILE SOMEWHAT MORE ICE HAS BEEN PRODUCED THAN EARLIER
EXPECTATIONS, THERE IS STILL A WAVE OF WARMER WEATHER DUE IN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE COLD WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS THE RIVER WILL STOP PRODUCING ICE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, AND THE UPSTREAM EDGE OF ICE WILL LIKELY ERODE BACK DOWNSTREAM
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. TO WHAT EXTENT THE AREA WILL SEE ICE REMOVAL IS
UNKNOWN.
SINCE 2010...THE NORMAL RISE IN THE RIVER AS IT DEVELOPS ITS ICE
COVER HAVE RANGED FROM A LOW OF 4.9 FEET TO AS MUCH AS 6.9 FEET,
OFTEN IN WELL UNDER 24 HOURS. THE USGS RIVER GAGE IN BISMARCK HAS
BEEN AROUND A STAGE OF 4.6 FEET PRIOR TO THE ACCUMULATING ICE. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE REASONABLE RANGE FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER ONCE ICE
DOES ACCUMULATE WILL BE BETWEEN 9.5 AND 11.5 FEET. HOWEVER, WITH ICE
CONSTRICTING THE NORMAL FLOW IN THE RIVER, THERE IS ALWAYS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SMALLER OR LARGER RISE THAN NORMAL. MINOR FLOOD STAGE
FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER IN BISMARCK IS 14.5 FEET.
RESIDENTS ALONG THE RIVER ARE ADVISED TO BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY
RISING WATER AND SHOULD ENSURE THEIR PERSONAL PROPERTY, SUCH AS BOAT
DOCKS, ARE SAFELY ABOVE THE REASONABLY EXPECTED WATER LEVELS.
LASTLY, WHEN THE EVENTUAL FREEZING OF THE RIVER DOES TAKE PLACE, ANY
PROBLEMATIC HIGH WATER SHOULD BE REPORTED TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE.
SCHLAG
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