368
FXUS63 KBIS 150546
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1146 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK.
- A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION,
ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- A TREND BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS MAY VARY
GREATLY FROM NORTHEAST (COOLER) TO SOUTHWEST (WARMER).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED
WITH THE LATEST NBM FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
QUIET WEATHER REMAINS. ONLY CHANGE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH CLOUDS NOW HAVE SPREAD OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
WESTERLY AND LIGHT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE CONTINUING
TO SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BLOWING SNOW, THOUGH LOCALIZED
DRIFTING SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT,
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE FILTERING IN RESULTING
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ARE LIKELY IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES,
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK. THE FIRST
CLIPPER IS SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. DETERMINISTIC MODELS, BACKED BY THE NBM ENSEMBLE,
SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION REMAINING MOSTLY IN CANADA. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND
ALONG THE DOWNSLOPE OF THE MISSOURI COTEAU.
A SECOND, AND LIKELY STRONGER, CLIPPER MAY IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MOST FAVORED TIMING. WITH HIGHS FORECAST
FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, THOUGH A LITTLE
SNOW COULD MIX IN AS WELL. WHILE LIMITED MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MOST AREAS, POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PERIPHERIES. THESE
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE OBVIOUS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
MORE HIGHER RES MODEL DATA IS INGESTED. OF NOTE WITH THIS
CLIPPER IS A CONTINUED ENHANCED EFI WIND GUST SIGNAL OF .9 FOR
MUCH OF THE STATE, AND .95 FOR PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THIS
SUGGESTS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF A HIGHER IMPACT WIND EVENT.
SHOULD THIS COINCIDE WITH ANY NEW SNOWFALL, WHICH SEEMS TO BE
THE FAVORED SOLUTION TO AT LEAST SOME EXTENT, THEN SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN SOME LOCATIONS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
THERE ARE THEN HINTS OF A THIRD SYSTEM TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK,
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MUCH HIGHER IN OVERALL DEVELOPMENT,
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE
WORKWEEK. THE WARMEST DAY IS PROGGED TO BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE NBM PRODUCES A ROLLER
COASTER OF COOLER, WARMER, AND COOLER AGAIN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE ALL SO FREQUENT
PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST DAYS AND NIGHTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SHEAR TONIGHT, RETURNING MONDAY
EVENING. WINDS ARE CALM OVERNIGHT THEN GUSTING 20-30KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...SMITH
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