015
FXUS63 KBIS 151548
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR WIND GUSTS UP 45 MPH.
- A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION, ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND VERY STRONG WINDS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- A TREND BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS MAY VARY
GREATLY FROM NORTHEAST (COOLER) TO SOUTHWEST (WARMER).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
QUIET WEATHER DAY TODAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO QUASI-
ZONAL AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS
20S TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST). NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL, EXCEPT IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. NO MAJOR UPDATES
WERE MADE EARLY THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
CURRENTLY, A FLATTENING RIDGE IS ON GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS ZONAL FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES IN. AT THE SURFACE A
SLIGHT LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AND SOUTH IN THE 30S AND 40S
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE THE
COLDER AIR HAS POOLED. THERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS.
TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER ACROSS THE STATE WITH THAT ZONAL FLOW AND
WARM FRONT. HIGHS WILL WIDELY BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S, BUT THEY
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WARM FRONT. THIS
EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GUSTS UP TO 45MPH IN THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A PASSING ALBERTA
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THE SECOND WARM FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUENCE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION (CAA). AROUND SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN
AND WINDS WILL RELAX SOME. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTH, CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY STARTING TONIGHT AT
06Z AND GOING TO 00Z WEDNESDAY (TUESDAY EVENING).
TUESDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT (THE CAA MENTIONED ABOVE) OFF THAT LOW
MOVES INTO THE STATE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE
REACHED BEFORE NOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN START TO COOL AFTER 18Z HOWEVER, WITH THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN FROM CANADA.
WEDNESDAY THE NEXT ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT
THE STATE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS, MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND SNOW
ACCUMULATION. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER COULD
BE DOWN NEAR 985MB, WHICH IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE VERY HIGH WINDS. STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING
(6AM TO 9AM) FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT CREATES RAIN, BUT SURFACE TEMPS ARE BELOW
FREEZING. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM. AROUND NOON, RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE CWA. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE TO 50MPH AS THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW NEARS THE WEST, ALONG WITH STRONG ARCTIC
COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY 00Z, MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND WILL
BE IN THE COLD WRAP AROUND AIR, CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW AND
INCREASING WINDS TO GUSTING NEAR 65MPH POTENTIALLY IN THE WEST (MORE
ON THAT BELOW). WITH THIS, THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS VERY HIGH IN
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONTINUE
WATCHING FOR. SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA, WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FAR NORTH. AFTER SUNSET
THE ENTIRE CWA COULD BE GUSTING NEAR 65MPH THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN THE NORTH
AND EAST. SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
EAST.
WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTH COULD ALSO GET INTO THE
DANGEROUS CATEGORY, POSSIBLY NEEDING A PRODUCT FOR THAT AS
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BELOW ZERO WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR 50MPH.
SPEAKING OF THE WINDS, EXTREMELY HIGH PRESSURE RISES (15-20MB
PER 3 HOURS) AND THE ARCTIC LEVEL OF CAA, WILL LIKELY CREATE
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 65MPH. CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WILL BE NEAR BLIZZARD, IF NOT AN ACTUAL BLIZZARD IN AREAS OF
FALLING SNOW. THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW EVENT IN
THE NORTH. THE EFI VALUES FOR WIND GUSTS IS 0.95 WITH A SHIFT
OF TAIL OF 2 STILL. THIS IS CONTINUING TO BOOST OUR CONFIDENCE
IN A VERY STRONG WIND AND NOT NORMAL (HIGH EFI NUMBERS) EVENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
NATURALLY THEN, THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
POST CAA AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN. THE NBM DOES HAVE A 10
DEGREE TEMPERATURE RANGE, BUT EITHER WAY THE STATE WILL NOT WARM TO
ABOVE FREEZING. THE FAR NORTH MAY NOT WARM ABOVE ZERO. THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL HAVE ZONAL FLOW DOMINATE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY REACHING BACK INTO THE 30S, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
SPREADS ARE ABOUT 25 DEGREES. SLIGHT CHANCES ON AND OFF FOR
LIGHT SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS LITTLE WAVES OFF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FORM AND MOVE EAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SHEAR STARTING THIS EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BE CALM TO AROUND 10KTS. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 43KTS ACROSS THE NORTH, CENTRAL, AND EAST FROM THE WEST.
THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE WEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSER TO 30KTS. WIND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
035>037-047-048-050-051.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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