215
FXUS63 KBIS 160243
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
843 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIND GUSTS UP 45 MPH.
- A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION, ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND VERY STRONG WINDS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- A TREND BACK TO COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
VARY GREATLY FROM NORTHEAST (COOLER) TO SOUTHWEST (WARMER).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 843 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
AS ANTICIPATED, BREEZY WINDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST, AND WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS THEY EXPAND ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL IN ALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
CURRENTLY, WE CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
MOMENT AS AN EMBEDDED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSH EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WAA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
WINDS TRANSITION TO WESTERLY AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
WINDS RAMPING UP OVERNIGHT SOME AREAS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT, AND SHOULD PREVENT
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS 1-2K FEET AGL FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. THOUGHT ABOUT PUSHING AHEAD IN TIME THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY, BUT FIGURED THERE MAY BE A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS
WITH GUSTY WINDS SO LEFT ALONE FOR NOW AND WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT REEVALUATE. WITH WAA AND INCREASED MIXING, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN STEADY (MORE SO WEST) TO RISING (MORE SO CENTRAL AND
EAST) TONIGHT, WITH MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
BEST PRESSURE RISES AND MIXING POTENTIAL WON'T ARRIVE TILL
MID/LATE TUES MORNING AFTER 15Z, AND THIS IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE
THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR OUR AREA. IT ALSO STILL APPEARS THE
NORTH AND EAST WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS, AND NO PLANS AT
THIS TIME TO MODIFY THE WIND ADVISORY AREA ON TUESDAY. DESPITE A
COLD FROPA PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, THOUGH WITH FALLING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A 160KT UPPER JET, WILL BE OUR
NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WED MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT. LEAD ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE MAY BRING SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH WED MORNING, FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY WED. VERY STRONG CAA SURGES
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW (1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ACROSS MY NORTH WED NIGHT). VERY
STRONG PRESSURE RISES COINCIDE WITH THE STRONG CAA WED NIGHT,
AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
TO 65 MPH WEST AND 50+ MPH CENTRAL. EFI (EXTREME FORECAST INDEX)
VALUES IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND SHIFT OF TAILS (INDICATION OF
HOW EXTREME THIS WIND EVENT MAY BE) OF 2 ACROSS THE WEST
INCREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF PEAK WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
50KTS, WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDEED SHOWING 60KTS WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER FOR WESTERN SITES. WIND HEADLINES ARE THUS LIKELY
FOR THIS FROPA. FOR NOW, WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL HERE, IN
THE HWO, AND THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA WITH THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR
TOMORROW OUT NOW.
TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS, THE SNOW COUPLED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS NORTH WILL LIKELY CREATE BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS, AND WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THERE. MOST
IMPACTED AREA RIGHT NOW STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST, WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT-
THURSDAY AM. AND, WE'RE ALSO STILL SEEING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WED EVENING AND NIGHT
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FROPA. AN INTERESTING SYSTEM TO
SAY THE LEAST.
MUCH COLDER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE, WITH HEADLINE WORTHY
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS) ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY (HIGHS
ZERO NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 20S SOUTHWEST...20-30 DEGREE DROP FROM
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS).
THEREAFTER, WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME, WITH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASING DUE TO LARGE SPREADS IN ENSEMBLES
AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE'S INABILITY TO FORECAST SMALLER WAVES
SEVERAL DAYS OUT. NBM STILL SHOWS A 20-30 DEGREE SPREAD IN
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS
WELL. PREDICTABLY, NBM PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MOISTURE ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEGINNING AND ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST, LLWS WILL IMPACT ALL OF
THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. VERY STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ARE ALSO ON TAP TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
035>037-047-048-050-051.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...TELKEN
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