384
FXUS63 KBIS 172114
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAMAGING WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80
MPH, WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA EXPECTED
TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF 80 TO 90 MPH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
- SNOW FALL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST.
- AREAS NOT IN A BLIZZARD WARNING, COULD STILL SEE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN FALLING SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THESE SAME AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN THE NORTH THURSDAY
MORNING.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, PATCHY BLOWING SNOW, AND
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 60%) FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE
FOUND ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
A STRONG AND ELONGATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ON THE BORDER OF
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN IS HOVERING AROUND 974 MB.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS A WEAK WARM FRONT BRINGING SOME WEAK
RETURNS ON THE RADAR, ALTHOUGH DRY AIR IS LIMITED THE RAIN THAT
IS REACHING THE SURFACE. REGARDLESS THIS CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
BEHIND THESE RAIN SHOWERS, STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS SILL REMAIN IN MONTANA,
THIS INITIAL PUSH OF WIND COULD STILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. THUS LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS IS FOR START TIMES.
AFTER SUNSET UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WHILE WE WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH. BY MID TO LATE EVENING AN INITIAL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ALONG THIS WILL BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW, AND SNOW
SQUALLS. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER REMAINS HIGH AND GENERALLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THOSE TRAVELING IN THESE
AREAS TONIGHT WILL NEED TO STAY ALERT FOR SNOW SQUALLS, WHICH
CAN BRING BRIEF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE NOTICE. FROM
AROUND 9 PM TO 3 AM CT WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS THE VERY
STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. 850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS FOR MOST AREAS, WITH 700 MB WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 90 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
BECAUSE THESE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WINDS THAT COULD MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE TONIGHT. THUS THE POTENTIAL RANGE OF WIND GUSTS ARE
60 TO 100+ MPH. THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, WHICH ARE THE BEST IN THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN THESE AREAS SHOWING 80+ KNOTS MAY MIX DOWN, WHICH COULD BRING
GUSTS TO 90 MPH. THESE KIND OF WINDS ARE USUALLY RESERVED FOR
HIGHER END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH DIFFERENT TYPES OF
SYSTEMS, THE IMPACTS FROM TONIGHTS STRONG WINDS COULD BE
SIMILAR. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW, WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTH. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL BRING NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE NOW IN A BLIZZARD WARNING. AREAS JUST SHORT OF
THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE MARK NOW HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR IMPACTFUL BLOWING SNOW. ON TOP OF ALL THAT, COLD ARCTIC AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTH, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THESE AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
A MUCH COLDER DAY IS THEN IN STORE FOR THURSDAY, WITH SNOW,
BLOWING SNOW, AND STRONG WINDS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 COULD SEE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SEES IMPACTS
DIMINISH AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. COLD
TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS FROM THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO NORTHEAST TO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO SOUTHWEST. LIGHT
WINDS MAY BECOME A BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT,
PERHAPS BRINGING SOME DANGEROUS WINDS CHILLS AGAIN, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START WARMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ON FRIDAY MAY TAKE A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT OF
THIS SYSTEM. NBM HAS MAINLY SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE IN TODAY'S
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WARMING CONDITIONS. WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
TO ANY AREAS WITH BLOWABLE SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 20S WEST TO 40S EAST. WINDS THEN GO WESTERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CHANCES.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO NORTH TO THE
TEENS SOUTH. PERHAPS SOME DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MAY ALSO RETURN.
ZONAL FLOW THEN LOOKS TO TAKE OVER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT TIMES THIS COULD LEAD TO WEAK RIDGING OR WEAK
TROUGHING. MOIST PACIFIC AIR MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
BRING BRIEF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS WELL. NBM SPREADS ARE HIGH
DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE PATTERN IS
MORE RIDGE LIKE VERSUS TROUGH LIKE. SOME DAYS COULD SEE HIGHS
AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE OTHERS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR STRONG WINDS. NBM POP
CHANCES ARE ALSO CURRENTLY LOW (20% OR LESS) ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
CHANGE IF MORE OF A TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD BRING LOW VFR TO PERIODS OF MVFR. A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE FOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS, WHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND BRING PERIODS OF LIFR AND IFR ACROSS MOST SITES WITH SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM KXWA TO
KMOT TO KRUG TO KJMS WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND ARE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MOST SITES, EXCEPT THOSE WITH LINGERING
BLOWING SNOW. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MOST SITES WILL SEE GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS, WITH
SOUTHWESTERN SITES PERHAPS SEEING GUSTS OVER 60 KNOTS. STRONG
WINDS WILL ALSO BRING PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO MOST
SITES, POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017-021.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-037.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR
NDZ009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
TO NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR NDZ018>020-031>034-
040>045.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THURSDAY FOR
NDZ019>021-034>036-042-045>048-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR NDZ035-036-046>048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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