875
FXUS63 KBIS 181234
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH-IMPACT STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS AND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- MUCH COLDER TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW (SOUTH) TO HIGH (NORTH) CHANCES
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY MILD BUT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- AFTER A COOLER SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO WARM BACK
TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
984 MB MSLP LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR BEMIDJI, MN AT 6 AM CST. INTENSE
PRESSURE RISES/COLD AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH VERY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TRAILING THE LOW THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN THE 65 TO 75 MPH
RANGE, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 80 TO 90 MPH LATE LAST NIGHT.
SNOW HAS ALSO ACCOMPANIED THE STRONG WINDS. AN EARLIER EXPANSION OF
THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WAS MADE ON ACCOUNT
OF A STATIONARY SNOW BAND EMBEDDED IN GUSTS COMMONLY AS HIGH AS 70
TO 80 MPH, PAIRED WITH HREF GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS OF NEAR-BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. SINCE THEN, THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE HAS GAINED FORWARD
MOMENTUM, RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR WESTERN
AREAS. WE WILL WAIT TO MAKE ANY FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE BLIZZARD
WARNING UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO WE CAN MORE EASILY CONFIRM THE STATE
OF CONDITIONS. FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 85, SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL WITH WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200, AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN RURAL AREAS TO THE
SOUTH. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION/RAPID-REFRESH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FALLING SNOW WILL QUICKLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, BUT COULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROLONG
IMPACTFUL BLOWING SNOW (BUT PERHAPS NOT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS) FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND THE END OF SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS,
SNOW, AND BLOWING SNOW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S BELOW
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH LOWER TO MID 30S BELOW ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS, AND MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO
IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
ZERO NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WITH TEENS BELOW FAR
NORTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER, WE DO ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
RISE OVERNIGHT AS WARMER PACIFIC AIR APPROACHES.
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS ONE WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS DYNAMIC AS THE CURRENT ONE,
BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME IMPACTFUL WEATHER. FROM EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH PROBABILITIES
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AS SNOW AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION,
BUT COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN (POSSIBLY WITH
SLEET MIXED IN ALONG THE TRANSITION ZONE) AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT OUTPACES THAT AT THE SURFACE. THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR A GLAZE OF ICE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD WILL NEED TO BE
INVESTIGATED AND ADDRESSED FURTHER AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF THE
ONGOING BLIZZARD. PRECPITATION SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST MOMENTUM TRANSFER
POTENTIAL AS HIGH AS 55 MPH MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE MORE CLOSELY EXAMINED ONCE WE ARE PAST
THE ONGOING HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER. IT WILL AT LEAST BE MUCH WARMER
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE, INCLUDING AS HIGH AS THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO FRIDAY'S CLIPPER WILL DRAG A LOWER-GRADE
ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BRING HIGHS BACK
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS (EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST). ENSEMBLES TEND
TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW AS OPPOSED TO NORTHWEST, AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A POSSIBLE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BUILDING BY MIDWEEK. ONLY A COUPLE PERIODS OF
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN OUR CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY ON ACCOUNT OF THE INHERENTLY LOWER PREDICTABILITY OF
THE FAVORED PATTERN. THERE IS A TYPICAL AMOUNT OF TEMPERATURE SPREAD
IN THE NBM FOR THE MEDIUM TO LONG FORECAST TIME RANGE, BUT THE
DISTRIBUTIONS ARE GENERALLY SKEWED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, AND THERE
IS A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
WARMER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW, MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS, AND NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING
AROUND 25-35 KTS, GUSTING TO 45-55 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEN LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO
10-20 KTS. AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY SNOW
CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN, MAY BE ENTERING WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017-018-021-031>033-040-041-043.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ001>003-
009>011.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-
012-013-022-023-025-037.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NDZ009-
017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ019>021-034>036-042-045>048-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ019-020-034-042-044-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ035-
036-046>048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...HOLLAN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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