974
FXUS63 KBIS 182046
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
246 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER TONIGHT, WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO
60%) FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND SLEET FRIDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
- WINDY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO RETURN FRIDAY, WITH SOME BLOWING
SNOW POSSIBLE.
- AFTER A COOLER SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO WARM
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
CONDITIONS HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON, THUS ALL
REMAINING HIGH WIND WARNING, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, AND
BLIZZARD WARNING PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED OR CANCELLED. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE TONIGHT, BRINGING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MUCH OF THE STATE. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING IN COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. THE COLDEST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST, WHERE SOME
LIGHT WINDS MAY LINGER. THUS EXTENDED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA. AS THIS HIGH
MOVES EAST LATER TONIGHT A BREEZY RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RETURN. THIS COULD BRING SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM THIS LOW
COULD ALSO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY. WARM
FRONT LIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. MOST HI-RES MODELS
HAVE THIS BRINGING A BAND OF SNOW ENDING AS FREEZING RAIN. BOTH
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE LIGHT BUT STILL MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS. MAIN CONCERN IS SOME DRY AIR BEING
INTRODUCED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY HELD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR NOW, ALTHOUGH IT
IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW IF THIS WARM FRONT CAN OVERCOME THE DRY
AIR, IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE FROM SNOW AND ICE IS
POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND LINGERING CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW. PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FROM THIS FRONT COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, ESPECIALLY TO
THE NORTH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 55 MPH. BLENDED NBM/NBM90TH
DATA FOR WIND FORECAST, YET HELD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS GIVEN
SOME SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. IT IS OF
NOTE THROUGH THAT ECMWF EFI VALUES ARE ELEVATED FOR FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY TO AN EXTENT. IF STRONG WINDS MATERIALIZE,
BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY TO ANY AREAS
WITH FRESH SNOWFALL FROM TODAY OR FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE FELL JUST SHORT OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR FRIDAY ON THIS
SHIFT, YET THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER IMPACTFUL WIND AND
WINTER EVENT. WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES
TO MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S WEST TO THE 30S EAST. COLD
TEMPERATURES COULD THEN MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT,
WITH BREEZY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW PERHAPS CONTINUING. THIS TIME
PERIOD MAY ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH.
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAY LINGER AS A RESULT. NBM HAS A DRY
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD PERHAPS BRING
SOME FLURRIES OR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS AND PERHAPS 20S
SOUTH. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE FOUND SATURDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH LIGHTER WINDS COULD LIMIT THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
READINGS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER FLAT RIDGING COULD THEN
BRING WARMING AND MAINLY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK, ZONAL
FLOW COULD SWAP BACK AND FORTH FROM RIDGING TO WEAK TROUGHING.
THE RESULT ARE LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREADS IN THE NBM, ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS TO STAY SOMEWHAT NEAR NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO LIMITED FOR NEXT WEEK AT THIS
TIME, AND WILL ONCE AGAIN DEPEND ON ANY WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF EFI VALUES ALSO INDICATING STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS COULD IMPACT THE KJMS TAF.
ANY AREAS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
LIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE FOUND TODAY. TONIGHT, MOST SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT THEN BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS COULD BRING MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE PROB30 MENTION FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT FROM KXWA TO KMOT.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY BECOMING WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME BLOWING
SNOW AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-
023-025-037.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ034>036-042-045>048-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ036-
047-048-050-051.
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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