112
FXUS63 KBIS 240404
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1004 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. FOG MAY RETURN AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS THROUGH
FRIDAY GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER (TEENS AND 20S) TO ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE RIVER (30S AND 40S).
- LOW CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
ON CHRISTMAS DAY, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
CAMS CONTINUE TO DELAY AND BACK OFF ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
AREAS OF LOW T/TD SPREADS IN SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING.
HETTINGER HAS DROPPED DOWN TO 7SM AND DICKINSON 6SM, SO DID
SPREAD THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE ONLY
CHANGES THIS FAR OUT WERE TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.
STILL TIME TO LOOK INTO THE FZDZ POTENTIAL, AND WILL PASS ALONG
TO THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST, WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. TONIGHT, WARM MOIST AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREAS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
AN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. TO THE NORTH, A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER
CANADA PROPAGATES EASTWARD, WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
PUSHING INTO NORTH DAKOTA, AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PROBABLY BE THE FOCUS FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CAM GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SUCCESSIVE
RUNS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EVENTUALLY THINK WE WILL SEE SOME
STRATUS/FOG, BUT MORESO AROUND OR AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY, INSTEAD
OF CLOSER TO 06Z AS EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD THIS COVERED AND WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF FOG
DOES DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, WITH HIGH OVER LAKE WINNIPEG SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES VERY BROAD RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR
AREA. SPEAKING OF OUR AREA, RATHER QUIET WEATHER REMAINS WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY LIGHT WIND BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE SYSTEMS.
FOR TONIGHT, SOUTHEAST WINDS GO LIGHT TONIGHT, BUT WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS ADVERTISED BY LATEST HIGH-RES MODELING.
ON WEDNESDAY, QUIET WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE
NOTABLE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S, WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MAY SEE SOME LOW 40S.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY,
THOUGH WITH A VERY MODEST WARMING TREND. FOG MAY ALSO REDEVELOP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER LATEST GUIDANCE, LINGERING INTO CHRISTMAS
MORNING.
ON CHRISTMAS DAY, THE FIRST IN A VARIETY OF WEAK SHORT WAVES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30
PERCENT) MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES BEING POSSIBLE INCLUDING SNOW,
SLEET, OR FREEZING RAIN. WITH THAT SAID, THE NBM PROBABILITY OF
SEEING EVEN 0.01 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINS QUITE LOW AT 20
PERCENT FAR NORTHWEST TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SNOW COME FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN
AT AROUND 20 TO 40 PERCENT, HIGHEST NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE
COLD AIR POURING IN, WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM SOME, BUT HIGH QUESTION AS
TO HOW MUCH BECAUSE NBM 25TH/75TH SPREADS FOR HIGHS ARE RANGING
AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND KDIK.
WE ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LOW STRATUS/FOG EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH THE 00Z TAFS WE
MENTIONED CAMS BACKING OFF ON THE AREAL EXTENT AND PUSHING BACK
THE ARRIVAL OF STRATUS/FOG. THAT TREND CONTINUES WITH THE 06Z
TAFS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME STRATUS/FOG DEPICTED OVERNIGHT, ITS
AREAL EXTENT IS MUCH LESS (MAINLY NORTHWEST AND JRV). ALTHOUGH
ITS HARD TO TELL WITH THE WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS, AT THIS TIME
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ND, SO OTHER
THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS, WIDESPREAD FOG LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN LATER, POSSIBLY NOT EVEN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD IT DOES LOOK THERE IS
MUCH MORE AGREEMENT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING. WILL
DEFINITELY BE PUSHING BACK AND LOWERING EXPECTATIONS FOR FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS START OUT SOUTHERLY TO
BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD, AND TURN NORTHERLY BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY, THEN VEERING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, AND BECOMING A LITTLE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH
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