705
FGUS73 KBIS 241945
ESFBIS
NDC009-013-023-049-069-075-079-101-250345-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
145 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
THIS FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN
OF NORTH DAKOTA, COVERING THE PERIOD OF 29 DECEMBER, 2025 THROUGH
29 MARCH, 2026.
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS FOUR SECTIONS. THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME
TEXT ON THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS OUTLOOK AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
RISKS OF FLOODING AS DETERMINED BY THE ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECAST
MODEL OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THE THIRD SECTION GIVES THE
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE AT THE LISTED
FORECAST LOCATIONS. AND FINALLY, THE FOURTH SECTION COVERS THE RISK
OF THE RIVER SITES FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGES.
..FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA ARE
AT NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
..SNOWPACK CONDITIONS
AFTER HAVING A ROBUST START TO THE SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON IN EARLY
DECEMBER, PARTS OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN IN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE
EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF THAT EARLY SNOW TO MELTING AND
SUBLIMATION. HOWEVER, THERE WAS VIRTUALLY NO OBSERVED RUNOFF FROM
THIS LOSS OF SNOW, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THAT WATER REMAINS IN
THE BASIN IN THE FORM OF NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE. IT IS ESTIMATED
THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA HAS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW-WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE), WITH MUCH SMALLER AREAS CONTAINING A
LITTLE OVER ONE INCH OF SWE.
..CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS
THERE ARE NO DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS WITHIN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF
NORTH DAKOTA.
..RESERVOIRS AND NATURAL WETLANDS
RESERVOIRS AND NATURAL WETLANDS ARE GENERALLY WELL WITHIN THE NORMAL
RANGE OF THEIR LONG-TERM TRENDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALL FLOOD
CONTROL PROJECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT, OR BELOW, THEIR DESIRED
WINTER LEVELS IN PREPARATION FOR THE SPRING MELT SEASON.
..SOIL CONDITIONS
SOILS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO
BOTH SOIL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE. IT IS NOW LIKELY THAT LARGE
AREAS OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAVE AN ABNORMALLY
HIGH SOIL MOISTURE IN THE UPPER FEW INCHES OF THE SOIL HORIZON. THIS
FROZEN, WET CRUST OF SOIL IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT INFILTRATION OF
RUNOFF GENERATED FROM MELTING SNOW, WHICH IN TURN ENHANCES RUNOFF
FROM A GIVEN SWE.
WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE NEAR TERM 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY WEATHER OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. LOOKING A LITTLE
FARTHER INTO THE FUTURE AND THE FULL MONTH OUTLOOKS FOR JANUARY
CONTINUE TO REFLECT AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
LOOKING EVEN LONGER TERM, THE 3-MONTH OUTLOOKS COVERING JANUARY,
FEBRUARY, AND MARCH ALSO FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE KNOWN EFFECTS OF A
LA NINA CLIMATE PATTERN THAT IS TYPICALLY (BUT NOT ALWAYS)
ASSOCIATED WITH WETTER AND COOLER OUTCOMES ALL THE WAY INTO THE
SPRING MELT SEASON.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 12/29/2025 - 03/29/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:DES LACS
FOXHOLM 1651.0 1653.0 1654.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOURIS
SHERWOOD 1623.0 1625.0 1630.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
FOXHOLM 1573.0 1576.0 1578.0 : 9 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
MINOT 1562.0 1565.0 1570.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MINOT 1551.0 1553.0 1557.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LOGAN 1536.0 1538.0 1540.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
SAWYER 1524.0 1526.0 1528.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
VELVA 1507.0 1512.0 1517.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WINTERING
KARLSRUHE 1509.0 1511.0 1512.0 : 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOURIS
TOWNER 1454.0 1456.0 1458.0 : 49 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
BANTRY 1440.0 1441.0 1443.0 : 47 14 13 8 <5 <5
:WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 1442.0 1446.0 1448.0 : 9 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOURIS
WESTHOPE 1414.0 1418.0 1420.0 : 8 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 12/29/2025 - 03/29/2026
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:DES LACS
FOXHOLM 1639.8 1639.8 1641.0 1642.2 1643.1 1644.5 1645.7
:SOURIS
SHERWOOD 1617.8 1617.8 1617.8 1617.8 1618.1 1619.5 1620.4
FOXHOLM 1571.2 1571.2 1571.2 1571.2 1571.2 1572.7 1573.5
MINOT 1554.1 1554.1 1554.1 1554.6 1554.9 1556.4 1556.6
MINOT 1542.8 1542.8 1542.8 1543.1 1543.3 1544.0 1544.1
LOGAN 1526.4 1526.4 1526.4 1527.2 1527.8 1529.7 1530.5
SAWYER 1511.8 1511.8 1511.8 1512.9 1513.8 1515.9 1517.2
VELVA 1495.7 1495.7 1495.7 1496.9 1498.8 1501.2 1503.1
:WINTERING
KARLSRUHE 1505.7 1505.7 1506.4 1508.1 1508.7 1509.0 1509.2
:SOURIS
TOWNER 1451.3 1451.3 1451.3 1454.0 1454.8 1455.3 1455.6
BANTRY 1436.5 1436.5 1436.5 1439.8 1440.8 1441.2 1441.4
:WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 1436.2 1436.2 1436.2 1437.4 1438.2 1441.3 1444.7
:SOURIS
WESTHOPE 1411.6 1411.7 1411.7 1412.2 1413.0 1413.9 1414.6
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 12/29/2025 - 03/29/2026
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:DES LACS
FOXHOLM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:SOURIS
SHERWOOD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FOXHOLM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
MINOT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
MINOT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
LOGAN 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SAWYER 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
VELVA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:WINTERING
KARLSRUHE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:SOURIS
TOWNER 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
BANTRY 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:SOURIS
WESTHOPE 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE END OF JANUARY.
SCHLAG
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