470
FXUS63 KBIS 242115
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG MAY RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING.
- A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (TEENS AND 20S) TO ABOVE AVERAGE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIVER (30S AND 40S).
- THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 35 BELOW
ZERO SUNDAY MORNING OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
CURRENTLY, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TROUGH OF SFC LOW
PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH COLD TEMPERATURES NORTH (TEENS) AND MILD
SOUTHWEST (NEAR 40).
CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF CHRISTMAS
DAY. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND SURFACE WINDS, WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ROUGHLY AT 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. WILL BE
MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IF WE GET ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, CHRISTMAS
DAY AND NIGHT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE WHEN MODELS BRING
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN A BIT. OTHERWISE, FORCING IS WEAK.
THEREAFTER, A SPLIT FLOW IS ADVERTISED, WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
S/WV PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE, BUT A COLD FROPA DOES MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
SAT AND SAT NIGHT, BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND
MUCH COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. COLD WEATHER AND/OR
WIND HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY-SUN MORNING, WHEN
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILL VALUES) ARE FORECAST TO BE AS
LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO AND WIND MAGNITUDES WILL APPROACH 40 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. ENSEMBLES SHOW
EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, AND MAY BRING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ANY GIVEN DAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH NBM 25/75 PERCENTILES STILL
SHOWING ALMOST A 40 DEGREE SPREAD. CULPRIT BEHIND THIS IS A
STRONGER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA,
WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BRING A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR
STRATUS AND FOG, WITH ONE OF THESE AREAS CURRENTLY IMPACTING
KDIK. WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS LIKELY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. OF
NOTE, A WINTRY MIX COULD FALL FROM THIS LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, DUE TO A RELATIVELY SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER,
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW SO LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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