994
FXUS63 KBIS 250005
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
605 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG MAY RETURN AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING.
- A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (TEENS AND 20S) TO ABOVE AVERAGE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIVER (30S AND 40S).
- 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ON
CHRISTMAS DAY, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
A FEW AREAS OF LOW STRATUS WERE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ND EARLY THIS EVENING. ONE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, ANOTHER WEST
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST AND A THIRD OVER PORTIONS OF THE JRV.
EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING
THOUGH. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
CURRENTLY, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TROUGH OF SFC LOW
PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH COLD TEMPERATURES NORTH (TEENS) AND MILD
SOUTHWEST (NEAR 40).
CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF CHRISTMAS
DAY. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND SURFACE WINDS, WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ROUGHLY AT 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. WILL BE
MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IF WE GET ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, CHRISTMAS
DAY AND NIGHT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE WHEN MODELS BRING
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN A BIT. OTHERWISE, FORCING IS WEAK.
THEREAFTER, A SPLIT FLOW IS ADVERTISED, WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
S/WV PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE, BUT A COLD FROPA DOES MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
SAT AND SAT NIGHT, BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND
MUCH COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE DAKOTAS. COLD WEATHER AND/OR
WIND HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY-SUN MORNING, WHEN
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILL VALUES) ARE FORECAST TO BE AS
LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO AND WIND MAGNITUDES WILL APPROACH 40 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. ENSEMBLES SHOW
EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, AND MAY BRING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ANY GIVEN DAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH NBM 25/75 PERCENTILES STILL
SHOWING ALMOST A 40 DEGREE SPREAD. CULPRIT BEHIND THIS IS A
STRONGER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA,
WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BRING A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
LOOK FOR INCREASING STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREAS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
CURRENTLY A FEW AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG, BUT EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG
TO EXPAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL HELP CLEAR THE STRATUS/FOG FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY,
BEGINNING AROUND MID-MORNING IN THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT,
BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
OVER WESTERN HALF OF ND BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...TWH
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