923
FXUS63 KBIS 251002
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
402 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. FOG MAY THEN RETURN
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCES
(20%) FOR RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 40%) FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES
TO BRING A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING, PROVIDING FOR SOME FOG. DENSE FOG REPORTS ARE CURRENTLY
ISOLATED AT THIS TIME, YET REMAIN WORTH MONITORING. FOR NOW HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO THE AREAS WITH THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE,
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS ARE NOT AS MOIST AND ABUNDANT MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO LIMIT FOG
FORMATION IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ELEVATED WARM
FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CURRENTLY, HELPING PROVIDE
FOR SOME FLURRIES, WHICH MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND TODAY AS THIS LOW KICKS OUT, WITH
SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY COULD HELP PROVIDE FOR SOME HAZE OR
PATCHY FOG AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW. THIS COULD BRING THE EXTRA LIFT PROVIDED TO
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE LINGERING LOW STRATUS. PTYPES
ARE TRICKY AS A MID LEVEL DRY LAYER COULD LIMIT SNOW FORMATION,
MAKING THE MAIN PTYPE TODAY FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE OVERALL LACK OF LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
CAUSED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE TODAY. HOWEVER, SOME MINOR
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE IF FREEZING PRECIPITATION CAN MATERIALIZE.
LOW MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHEAST TO THE 20S SOUTHWEST. THE
DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY COULD RETURN FOG TO MUCH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A MILD AN MAINLY DRY DAY
IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY ONCE FOG DIMINISHES. LOOK FOR
CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S NORTHEAST
TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND
START PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING SNOW AND
PERHAPS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE TEENS NORTH TO THE 20S SOUTH.
THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT WITH NBM
CHANCES FOR OVER AN INCH AROUND 10%. BEHIND THIS FRONT COULD
ALSO BE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LIGHT SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS
COULD THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THIS COULD BRING SOME
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. COLD AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MOST AREA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO, PERHAPS RETURNING MORE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.
ECMWF EFI VALUES STILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR SUNDAY, PERHAPS
INDICATING NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. AT LEAST
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH SNOWFALL IS RECEIVED FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE YEAR NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLY DEPEND
HOW FAR INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING MAKES IT INTO THE
WESTERN US. CLUSTERS ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT ON WESTERN VS MORE
EASTERN SOLUTIONS TO THIS RIDGE. THIS SHOWS UP IN THE
TEMPERATURE SPREADS FROM THE NBM ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE
SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES SPREADS REMAIN UP TO 30 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE. OVERALL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP VERSUS HOW FAR EAST THE WARMER
AIR CLOSER TO THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND. CURRENT NBM FORECAST IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHERE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS FOR SNOW ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE LOCATION OF THIS RIDGE SETS
UP. NBM CHANCES FOR OVER AN INCH OF SNOW IN ANY 24 HOUR PERIOD
ARE OVERALL LOW NEXT WEEK, AND GENERALLY AROUND 10% OR LESS.
PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS MAY ALSO BE FOUND EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK, ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP.
RIGHT NOW ECMWF EFI VALUES DO NOT SHOW A SIGNAL FOR STRONG
WINDS. OVERALL NEXT WEEK COULD SEE A STARK CONTRAST OF WARMER
AND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE STATE, YET WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW FROM AN UPSTREAM RIDGE SETS UP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
STRATUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE, MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY STRATUS WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JRV AS WELL, BUT PORTIONS OF
THESE AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE STRATUS UNTIL CHRISTMAS MORNING. A
LOT LESS CERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO FOG. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
SURFACE FLOW, IT WOULD APPEAR TO BE MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT.
BUFKIT FOG PROCEDURES SHOW MORE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS THAN FOG,
BUT EVEN SO, THERE MAY STILL BE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITIES,
ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. CAMS SHOW LOWEST
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS BETWEEN HIGHWAY
85 AND HIGHWAY 83. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
AND IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF FOG BUT WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL HELP CLEAR THE STRATUS/FOG FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY,
BEGINNING AROUND MID- MORNING IN THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
THURSDAY BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT, BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY OVER WESTERN HALF OF ND BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN/TWH
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