963
FXUS63 KBIS 251525
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
925 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING, LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOG MAY THEN RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
- A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING. LOW CHANCES
(20%) FOR RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 40%) FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
FOG PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY AT TIMES IS AT A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES. HOWEVER, WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING
OVERALL FAIR VISIBILITY, SO OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW VS DENSE FOG ADV., EXPANDED NORTH AND
EAST, AND EXTENDED TILL 19Z EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ND DOT ROAD
REPORTS SHOW FROST ON AREA ROADWAYS, SO DID MENTION THIS IN THE
SPS PRODUCT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS IN CASE MORE
ELEVATED MESSAGING IS NEEDED.
FLURRIES CONTINUE NORTH THIS MORNING, SO THIS WAS MAINTAINED.
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH A SUBTLE EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE
MAY RESULT IN A SWATH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY. MINIMAL MOISTURE EXPECTED SO FOR NOW JUST MENTIONED
IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
FOG CONTINUES TO BE FOUND THIS MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE
SAKAKAWEA AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WEBCAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING DENSE FOG TO BE ISOLATED, WITH
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE TO A MILE BEING REPORTED.
GIVEN THE LACK OF DENSE FOG REPORTS, 1/4 MILE OR LESS, EXPANDED
AND CONTINUED THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FOG THIS
MORNING. TRAVELERS WILL STILL WANT TO SLOW DOWN AND PROCEED
WITH CAUTION IN ANY AREAS WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT. SITES OUTSIDE OF
THIS AREA COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FOG, ALTHOUGH THE WINDOW FOR
DENSE FOG WILL START TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE,
FLURRIES TO BRIEF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED ACROSS THE
NORTH ALONG A WEAK ELEVATED FRONT. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
THIS MORNING, THUS MAINTAINED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THESE
AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES
TO BRING A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING, PROVIDING FOR SOME FOG. DENSE FOG REPORTS ARE CURRENTLY
ISOLATED AT THIS TIME, YET REMAIN WORTH MONITORING. FOR NOW HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO THE AREAS WITH THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE,
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS ARE NOT AS MOIST AND ABUNDANT MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO LIMIT FOG
FORMATION IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ELEVATED WARM
FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CURRENTLY, HELPING PROVIDE
FOR SOME FLURRIES, WHICH MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND TODAY AS THIS LOW KICKS OUT, WITH
SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY COULD HELP PROVIDE FOR SOME HAZE OR
PATCHY FOG AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW. THIS COULD BRING THE EXTRA LIFT PROVIDED TO
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE LINGERING LOW STRATUS. PTYPES
ARE TRICKY AS A MID LEVEL DRY LAYER COULD LIMIT SNOW FORMATION,
MAKING THE MAIN PTYPE TODAY FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE OVERALL LACK OF LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
CAUSED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE TODAY. HOWEVER, SOME MINOR
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE IF FREEZING PRECIPITATION CAN MATERIALIZE.
LOW MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHEAST TO THE 20S SOUTHWEST. THE
DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY COULD RETURN FOG TO MUCH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A MILD AN MAINLY DRY DAY
IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY ONCE FOG DIMINISHES. LOOK FOR
CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S NORTHEAST
TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND
START PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING SNOW AND
PERHAPS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE TEENS NORTH TO THE 20S SOUTH.
THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT WITH NBM
CHANCES FOR OVER AN INCH AROUND 10%. BEHIND THIS FRONT COULD
ALSO BE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LIGHT SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS
COULD THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THIS COULD BRING SOME
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. COLD AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MOST AREA. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO, PERHAPS RETURNING MORE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.
ECMWF EFI VALUES STILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR SUNDAY, PERHAPS
INDICATING NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. AT LEAST
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH SNOWFALL IS RECEIVED FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE YEAR NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLY DEPEND
HOW FAR INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING MAKES IT INTO THE
WESTERN US. CLUSTERS ABOUT EVENLY SPLIT ON WESTERN VS MORE
EASTERN SOLUTIONS TO THIS RIDGE. THIS SHOWS UP IN THE
TEMPERATURE SPREADS FROM THE NBM ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE
SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES SPREADS REMAIN UP TO 30 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE. OVERALL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP VERSUS HOW FAR EAST THE WARMER
AIR CLOSER TO THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND. CURRENT NBM FORECAST IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHERE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS FOR SNOW ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE LOCATION OF THIS RIDGE SETS
UP. NBM CHANCES FOR OVER AN INCH OF SNOW IN ANY 24 HOUR PERIOD
ARE OVERALL LOW NEXT WEEK, AND GENERALLY AROUND 10% OR LESS.
PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS MAY ALSO BE FOUND EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK, ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP.
RIGHT NOW ECMWF EFI VALUES DO NOT SHOW A SIGNAL FOR STRONG
WINDS. OVERALL NEXT WEEK COULD SEE A STARK CONTRAST OF WARMER
AND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE STATE, YET WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW FROM AN UPSTREAM RIDGE SETS UP.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING UNDER LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. ALTHOUGH ALMOST ANY SITE
COULD SEE FOG THIS MORNING, KDIK WAS THE ONLY TAF SITE WITH HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF TAF SITES
HAVE LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH BR MENTION. FOG BECOMES MORE PATCHY
OR COMPLETELY LIFTS THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS COULD
STILL BRING IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. LOW CLOUDS COULD THEN LINGER
TONIGHT, WITH MORE FOG FORECAST TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOG MENTION TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WAS HIGH
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION MENTION ON THIS TAF SET. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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