864
FXUS63 KBIS 252137
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG TODAY, WITH FOG AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
OPTED TO EXPIRE COUNTIES WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY, AND EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z ELSEWHERE. WHILE
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED AT BOTH BISMARCK AND LINTON, ELSEWHERE
ACROSS BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES LOW VISIBILITY PERSISTS IN
FOG. STILL SOUPY IN MY SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
CURRENTLY, EMBEDDED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TOWARDS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH A LINGERING WELL-SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND FOG FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST,
WHERE WINDS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO WEST ALLOWING BETTER MIXING AND
THE LOWER CLOUDS TO LIFT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED FROPA WILL
CONTINUE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, TRANSITIONING WINDS FROM
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO MORE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND WILL ACT TO ERODE
THE FOG SLOWLY WEST TO EAST. LOW STRATUS IS FORECAST BY THE RAP
AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY RETREATING BACK
EAST, BUT PERSISTS NORTH, CENTRAL, AND EAST, WITH REDEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT OVER THOSE AREAS WEST THAT IMPROVED. CAMS ALSO ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FOG LINGERING EAST INTO PARTS OF THIS
EVENING, AND REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST. FOG IS THEN FORECAST
TO ONCE AGAIN EXPAND EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AM, LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CHALLENGING FORECAST. CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 1600 CST, AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND SOME
COUNTIES. WILL RELOOK OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
IN ADDITION, ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA THIS AFTERNOON/EVE,
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW DECENT RADAR
RETURNS NOW AND SFC OBS REPORTING TRACE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH SOME OF THESE HIGHER RETURNS. HOWEVER, STILL ONLY
EXPECT MINIMAL MOISTURE REACHING THE SURFACE WITH A DEEP DRY
LAYER IN PLACE.
THEREAFTER, A SPLIT FLOW IS ADVERTISED, WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
S/WV PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLES AND NBM STILL ARE LACKING ON QPF, WITH LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH OF SNOW FORECAST CURRENTLY WITH THIS WAVE. COLD FROPA
DOES MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION SAT AND SAT NIGHT, AND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND MUCH COLDER AIR SURGING INTO
THE DAKOTAS. LACK OF SNOW WILL LIMIT THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL. COLD WEATHER AND/OR WIND HEADLINES REMAIN POSSIBLE
FOR THE SATURDAY- SUNDAY PERIOD, WHEN APPARENT TEMPERATURES
(WIND CHILL VALUES) ARE FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND MAGNITUDES APPROACHING 40 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ROCKIES,
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. ENSEMBLES SHOW
EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, AND MAY BRING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ANY GIVEN DAY. THE STRONGER OF THESE
WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WED/WED NIGHT, WITH TIMING
ISSUES OF THE COLD FROPA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE STILL
APPARENT WITH NBM STILL SHOWING A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD
FOR HIGHS NEW YEAR'S EVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD IN LOW STRATUS AND
FOG. KDIK HAS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOP. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, OR SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION MENTION ON THIS TAF SET.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ022-023-
025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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